Using Historical Momentum-Based Trends to Predict the National Champion
History is an argument without end
At the end of last season, I analyzed the past 40 years of college basketball champions to identify end of season trends entering the NCAA Tournament. These were the most useful heuristics.
A late season loss or two is manageable. Four or more losses in the final 10 games is usually too much.
Only one champion in the past 40 years has entered the NCAA Tournament after losing back to back games.
Beyond the results of the final 10 games, I also examined winning streaks entering the tournament. The most common outcome was a one game losing streak, accounting for about half of all champions.
Using these two ideas, we will examine the top 12 teams at Torvik by championship probability and see which ones best fit the historical pattern.
Teams History Frowns Upon
Duke
The Blue Devils enters the tournament with the best odds to win the national title, which makes relying on a narrow anecdote somewhat risky. Still, history is notable here. Over the last 40 years, only three teams have won the NCAA Tournament after entering Selection Sunday on a winning streak of 10 games or more.
Arizona
Falling into the same category as Duke, nine game winning streak champions are no more common than 10 gamers. Both teams could still reach Indianapolis, especially since we recently saw Duke and Houston ride extended streaks deep into the tournament.
Illinois
Only one team in the past 40 seasons has won the national championship after winning just half of its previous five games. Illinois is the most popular three seed by most metrics, and the Illini have dropped only two spots at KenPom over their last 10 games. If choosing a non one seed to win the title, Illinois’ uneven final month should give pause.
Michigan State
Only one team in the last 40 years has won the national championship while entering Selection Sunday on a two game losing streak. Michigan State would need to follow a path similar to 1997 Arizona, which defeated three different one seeds to complete their run. Auburn entered last season’s tournament on a two game losing streak and still reached the Final Four, but winning the championship under those conditions remains rare.
6-4 Teams
Purdue comes close to a common profile with four consecutive wins entering the NCAA Tournament. Despite this, only two teams in the last 40 years have won the national title after going 6-4 in their 10 games before Selection Sunday.
That context makes it unlikely that the champion will come from the following group:
Purdue
Iowa State
Michigan State
Vanderbilt
Teams History Smiles Upon
Michigan
Their loss to Duke was likely expected to be their final defeat before Selection Sunday, but yesterday’s loss to Purdue in the conference championship gave them a second loss in their last 10 games and snapped a six game winning streak. A win would have given them a seven game winning streak and 9-1 stretch, exactly identical to Florida’s profile from last season.
Despite the setback, their overall profile remains strong. An 8-2 record over the last 10 games ranks just behind the most common 10 game outcome, and their current one game losing streak appears more frequently in the data than the longer winning streak they had recently built.
Florida
The Gators were also upset this weekend, ending their 12 game winning streak. The loss shifts them into a more common profile with a one game losing streak, though their performance over the last 10 games remains slightly stronger than Michigan’s.
One of the two team not yet discussed is Gonzaga. They present a unique case. Their two game winning streak would have been unlikely in earlier tournament formats, but the rise of stepladder seeded brackets over the past several years has made this outcome more common. If Gonzaga were to win the championship, it would stand as an outlier and create a new reference point for this analysis.
Last season’s tournament already produced several unprecedented results that challenged decades of historical trends. With some of the most dominant teams in recent memory at the top of the sport, it is increasingly likely that future tournaments will continue to produce outcomes that reshape these patterns. Houston nearly did exactly that last season, entering the title game on an 18 game winning streak that would have been the longest of the modern six round tournament era.
Something Cool I’ve Seen Lately
We’ll be soon to forget conference tournament week. Let us not forget the repercussions of the Big 12’s glass floor.
