Comparing End of Season Momentum for National Champions
How well did the Gators fit the bill?
Paranoid Paparazzi
After winning the SEC tournament and finishing 14–4 in what was widely considered the toughest conference in history, Florida entered Selection Sunday as a popular national title pick. The Gators were the second most popular choice among the public on ESPN, selected in 21.3% of brackets, and backed by 22 of the 58 experts on the site.
That 37% support stood in sharp contrast to top-seeded Auburn, which was picked by only one expert. While Florida closed the season with 12 wins in their final 13 games, Auburn stumbled, losing three of their last four.
Auburn’s end of season struggles in 2025
Since 1985, only one national champion has taken their second-to-last loss on March 8 or later: Connecticut in 2014. Auburn would have matched that mark this past season. This supports the lack of backing, both by experts and the public.
UConn’s end of season losses in 2014
55 & a Half
Teams that stumble down the stretch are rarely popular picks in the tournament—and history offers some support for that skepticism.
Over the past 40 years, 45% of national champions won their conference tournament—a figure that rises to 50% when excluding teams that didn’t participate.
No champion who played in a conference tournament has ever failed to reach at least the semifinals, likely because champions are typically top-seeded teams that require few wins to get that far.
More than half of all champions either lost in their conference semifinals or finals—or, in two cases, skipped the tournament entirely—and entered the NCAA Tournament on a losing streak. Only three champions arrived on Selection Sunday riding a winning streak of 10 games or more, making Houston’s 13-game streak entering the 2025 tournament an outlier as a potential champion.
Outside of a one-game losing streak, the most common trend among champions is a five-game winning streak, shared by seven teams—accounting for 17.5% of the group.
Arizona in 1997 remains the only champion to enter the NCAA Tournament on a multi-game losing streak, though they did not participate in their conference tournament. In the last 40 years, no champion has lost both their final regular-season game and their first conference tournament game, reinforcing the idea that reaching at least the semifinals is a key marker for a potential national title run.
The longest winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament belongs to UCLA in 1995—the only champion since 1985 to go undefeated through both February and March.
The graph above shows that while champions rarely enter the NCAA Tournament with a perfect 10-0 finish, they also tend not to lose more than three games down the stretch—striking a balance that helps preserve strong seeding and favorable early matchups. In 1985, the first year of the expanded field, Villanova entered as an eight seed after going just 5-5 in their final 10 games. Their remarkable run remains one of the tournament’s biggest upsets, and they are still the lowest-seeded team to win a national title.
If Not Now, Then When?
Now that we have a sense of historical patterns, how do this year’s top seeds compare? Does Florida break from the norm? Let’s examine the top two seeds in each region to see what warning signs, if any, might have emerged.
The above data reveals a few compelling trends. Duke and Houston entered the tournament riding impressive winning streaks, each with only one conference loss. Kentucky in 1996 stands out as the only champion whose penultimate loss came in November, while just two others—Kentucky in 2012 and UConn last season—had theirs in December. This suggests that most champions don’t go undefeated in conference play, and a stumble or two is more the norm than the exception.
On the flip side, late-season slumps from teams like Auburn, Tennessee, and Alabama broke from the finishing patterns typically seen among champions. However, drawing broader conclusions is difficult when multiple top seeds come from the same conference—as was the case with the SEC this year—limiting comparative context.
Florida and St. John’s both entered the tournament on strong runs, winning six and nine straight respectively, with 9-1 records in their final 10 games—the most common mark among past champions. Since the final loss is often dictated by the tournament schedule, it doesn’t carry much analytical weight. Importantly, every team in this sample made at least the semifinals of their conference tournaments.
Among this year’s field, Florida aligns closely with historical precedent. While this analysis shouldn’t be used as a blueprint for predicting future champions, it does help surface a few useful heuristics:
A late-season loss or two is fine—four or more in the final 10 games is pushing it.
No champion in the past 40 years has lost back-to-back games heading into the NCAA Tournament.
A team that’s learned to lose may be better prepared than one that hasn’t.
–BM