Three Undefeated Teams That Might Not Be (That) Good
Not Mentioned: 5-0 Seton Hall.
Among the least meaningful metrics early in the college basketball season are wins and losses. Not every win carries the same weight, and with many non-D1 opponents on schedules in the first two weeks, teams can post results against nearly 500 potential opponents. This is far larger than the 365 Division One programs.
Computer models evaluate a team’s value, capability, and ceiling by more than just wins and losses. Margin of victory matters, especially when programs avoid competitive games for weeks. It is one of the clearest indicators of how a team performs against true D1 competition.
Gaudy records reveal little on their own. Several teams look impressive in the standings, but their records mean very little once the underlying numbers are examined.
This is mainly an exercise in reevaluating teams that have disappointed despite an undefeated start, not in fixating on programs with the easiest non-conference schedules that are widely accepted as poor. Nobody will be dying on the hill of Syracuse.
Oregon
Record: 4-0
KenPom Change: -21 (Began 35, now 56)
Four home wins but not a single encouraging performance. Oregon was expected to start slow this season, with preseason concerns centered on Jackson Shelstad’s broken right hand. The original timeline was four to six weeks, and the injury occurred in early October, putting his status for the opener in question. Surprisingly, even though the first four opponents included only one top 100 KenPom team, Shelstad returned after missing just one game.
Shelstad has hit only a third of his threes through three games, which is not surprising given the shooting hand injury. The difference is small, likely only three to six points if his shooting normalizes.
Oregon was projected to lean heavily on Shelstad and Nate Bittle. Outside of Monday’s game, when he attempted 14 free throws, junior Kwame Evans has not provided consistent third-option production. Evans suffered a knee injury against Hawaii but has played in every game. The injury in the opener may have slowed his early aggressiveness until his recent surge at the line.
Oregon dodged disaster in their first game of the season.
Oregon needed a buzzer beater to escape Hawaii in the opener. The Rice game was tied at 40 before Oregon pushed the lead to nine. The four point final was closer to six before a meaningless buzzer beater. The Ducks made only 25 percent of their threes, and the offense has struggled. Bittle is the only player shooting above 33 percent from deep among those taking more than one attempt per game.
Wei Lin has had a difficult start to his college career. He made 35 percent of his threes in the CBA last season and showed some pull up ability, but none of that has surfaced yet.
While Oregon State ranks lower than Hawai’i at KenPom, Monday’s game felt like Oregon’s first real test, helped by the proximity of the two campuses. It was another home game for the Ducks, so the 13.5 point line was no surprise. For the fourth straight time, they failed to cover.
The lack of depth and offensive contribution is concerning, especially with the Player’s Era Festival up next. In the MTE they won last season, Oregon opens with Auburn and San Diego State, a manageable draw. KenPom projects both as four point losses, though Oregon is fully capable of winning either. The 18 team field is crowded enough that point differential will shape the third game, with several teams likely to start 2-0. If the Ducks go 2-0, they could face Kansas, which has the softest draw with Notre Dame and Syracuse. If Oregon and Kansas meet, and Darryn Peterson remains out, a 7-0 start and a top 10 ranking after Thanksgiving would be in play.
This obviously runs counter to the broader narrative, as Oregon is more likely to disappoint in the Player’s Era despite the winnable matchups. Despite the cheery MTE outlook, like last season, Oregon could hit another rough stretch similar to the 0-5 run in conference play. Things could fall apart in Las Vegas next week, or Oregon could strengthen its standing as a paper tiger1. Either outcome would aid the narrative.
South Alabama
Record: 5-0
KenPom Change: -21 (Began 181, now 202)
It was an impressive start to the season, as the Jaguars were one of the few Sun Belt teams to pick up a SBC-MAC Challenge victory, a road win at that. Since then, they have played close games against weak D1 teams.
South Alabama looked dominant against Toledo in the opener, but if you watched the other nine halves they have played, you would come away with a very different opinion. A major reason is the disappearance of Peyton Law as a hyper efficient, high impact scorer. He missed only three shots across the first two games, going an incredible 22 for 25 from the field.
Law is undersized as a center at 6’7. He averaged up to three threes per game at Freed Hardeman University before transferring to South Alabama, but he has not attempted one this season. He also posted a 37 percent free throw rate in his final NAIA season2, yet he has taken only five free throws through five games. High two point volume at his size, without trips to the line, is far less effective than it once was. He was never going to keep shooting 80 percent from the field. He is 6’7, not 7’1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, whose post play and size let him maintain elite efficiency.
Law was not expected to be the team’s top scorer, so his unique but dated style is not the reason South Alabama has had so many close calls.
More unusual is that 63 percent of opponent field goal attempts are coming from the perimeter, the highest rate in the country. This would be the second straight season South Alabama leads this category. Opponents are shooting about as well from three as they did last year, and South Alabama is not giving up a higher rate of offensive rebounds on those misses.
Three point defense is always a tricky topic. A defender can contest a shooter the same way in two different games, yet the shooter may make a completely different number of shots. Variance plays a huge role, and South Alabama’s system invites that variance.
Another concern is how little the bench has been used compared to past seasons. Some of this comes from playing in close games, but four of those games had double digit spreads, which makes the limited rotation unsettling. This matters for three point defense. Fatigue leads to softer closeouts, as seen in Toledo’s improved second half shooting. Last season South Alabama ranked in the top 100 in bench usage. This year they are in the bottom 50.
Teams are also shooting five percent better inside the arc than they did last season. Even with fewer attempts allowed, that jump is meaningful. It likely ties to South Alabama’s higher offensive turnover rate, which has created more transition chances for opponents.
Close wins against teams ranked outside the top 340 at KenPom are not encouraging. When paired with a defense that funnels attempts to the perimeter, this could lead to real issues for South Alabama once conference play begins.
Kansas State
Record: 4-0
KenPom Change: -11 (Began 60, now 71)
Had it not been for two furious comebacks, the Wildcats would not have qualified for this list. In a game that looked decided by halftime, Cal erased a 25 point deficit and turned it into a tight finish. A three point win against an ACC opponent is respectable, but Kansas State made half its threes and still nearly gave the game away by missing a third of its free throws.
In the second half, the Wildcats turned the ball over, lost battles on the glass, and almost squandered what had once been an encouraging performance. Even so, they built a 25 point lead and held on to win.
On Monday night, Kansas State found itself on the opposite side of a comeback. Tulsa led by five with 45 seconds left, and the Wildcats scored the final six points to win in regulation.
A wild pass from Miles Barnstable out of a trap led to an open look at the rim, which became the game winner.
The Wildcats shot 21% from three. What makes this more notable is that they shot 54% from the perimeter across their first three games. The question is whether this was simply an outlier shooting night that dragged them into a tight game with a team outside the top 100 at KenPom, or a clearer picture of what Kansas State really is. It depends on what the roster looks like around PJ Haggerty, who has met expectations as an elite foul drawer and is easily the team’s leading scorer.
Against Tulsa, no teammate scored even half of Haggerty’s total, which does not inspire confidence. Abdi Bashir ranked third nationally last season in shot rate relative to his team and looked like another potential volume creator, but nearly three quarters of his attempts this season have come from the perimeter. With Monmouth, he was more balanced as a scorer.
Monmouth was a bottom ten team in two point efficiency last season, making interior scoring an issue. Bashir often stands on the perimeter waiting for catch and shoot chances. In one clip, he cuts baseline but misses a difficult reverse layup.
In another possession, he receives the ball with his defender trailing, but he lacks the burst to beat his man or the rotating help. He drives, forces a wild jump pass, gets the ball back, and again cannot get into the paint even after a switch.
There is no shame in being one of the top scorers in the CAA and then becoming a dedicated shooter after transferring to a high major. Two thirds of Bashir’s two point attempts last season were mid range shots, and that has continued. Only two of his ten attempts from two this season have come at the rim, with the rest from farther out. There are fewer mid range opportunities in the Big 12 than in the CAA, which limits his role.
Nate Johnson was the conference player of the year at Akron last season. He has already made a third of the threes he hit last season in the MAC, where he shot 29% on more than 100 attempts. He has not turned into a 58% three point shooter overnight, even with less defensive attention. His hot start has buoyed Kansas State’s overall three point percentage, as he has contributed a quarter of their makes from deep so far.
This is probably not as efficient a three point shooting team as it looked through three games, but the showing against Tulsa should not be the expectation either.
There are signs this may become the PJ Haggerty show. Johnson’s shooting will regress, making him a less reliable option. Khamari McGriff, the UNC Wilmington transfer, is solid but is a known commodity as an interior scorer. The Haggerty show did not work for Tulsa in 2024, and while Memphis made the tournament in 2025, there is no one on this roster close to the level of Tyrese Hunter.
Worth Noting, Not Elaborating Upon
Miami-Ohio is 3-0. Peter Suder has been forgettable so far. They could go undefeated into conference play, with a very weak non-con.
Utah is 5-0. They’ve dropped 35 spots at KenPom. Posting an overtime Weber State win, and close games against Sam Houston State and Purdue Fort Wayne.
North Carolina A&T is 3-13. They might not win three games the rest of the season. They’re projected to only win two KenPom games against D1 opponents the rest of the year. Their three wins are against two sub 350 teams and a non-D1 opponent.
纸老虎
Calculated by dividing the number of free throw attempts by the number of field goal attempts.
They aren’t undefeated, I know. 3-1 for NCA&T is basically undefeated, though.
BM