68 Statistics About 68 Tournament Teams
Quite a few shining moments...
For now, 68 teams qualify for the NCAA tournament, sparking excitement among fan bases, the hope of an upset, and dreams of reaching the Final Four. However, despite every program's aspirations to be the Cinderella story, only a quarter of the teams will remain after just four days of play. The star-studded teams we witness in the Final Four, and the team we retroactively claim to be “oh-so-obvious” as the National Champion, are what will stick with us in the years to come.
This means that the low-major, who surprised many by winning their conference tournament as a five seed, will vanish as quickly as they appeared, facing a blowout loss to a better-funded, highly favored top-seeded team. However, the journey of the eventual 67 losers is not without merit. The fan bases who braved cold February evenings or stayed up late to cheer on their teams should not be met with disappointment if their team falls short, but rather with appreciation for making it this far.
Before the bloodbath ensues and 67 teams that worked hard to qualify for greatness are eliminated, it is important to take a moment to reflect on an important statistic of each of our tournament qualifiers.
East Region
UConn
1 Seed - Auto Bid - Big East
77.4%. The reigning champions have continued their dominance this year, matching their 31 victories from the previous season. The Huskies aren’t merely scraping by; more than three-quarters of their victories in the past two seasons have been by at least double digits, leaving nothing to chance in their over 60 victories dating back to November ‘22.
Stetson
16 Seed - Auto Bid - Atlantic Sun
43 Points. Jalen Blackmon wanted more than anything to bring his Hatters to their first NCAA Tournament, and he put his team on his back in the championship game against Austin Peay, pouring in nearly half of his team’s 94 points in a shootout.
Image per Stetson
Florida Atlantic
8 Seed - At Large - American
Two Q1 wins (and two Q4 losses). Playing in a conference as challenging as last year, despite it being seen as an upward move, the Owls lacked consistency this season, largely due to their struggling defense. This resulted in some high-level wins and some tough losses, including bursting a bubble by losing to Temple in the conference tournament, who finished third from the bottom in the conference regular season.
Northwestern
9 Seed - At Large - Big Ten
145 Games Played. Boo Buie, who will likely get a statue one day given his incredibly impactful five years for the Wildcats, is one of the longest-tenured players in the country. With Ty Berry injured, Buie will be even more crucial for the Wildcat’s offense.
San Diego State
5 Seed - At Large - Mountain West
18 Games since a three game winning streak. Since beginning their season quite well, the Aztecs haven’t been able to get on a roll consistently. While playing in the competitive Mountain West is likely reason for this, with over half of its teams making the tournament, San Diego State will need to string several wins together to match last year’s deep run.
UAB
12 Seed - Auto Bid - American
38 Offensive Rebounds in the conference tournament. As one of the weaker shooting teams to qualify for the tournament, the Blazers instead rely on rebounding the ball and getting to the free throw line, and this was on full display as they upset the top seeded USF Bulls on their way to return to their second tournament in three years. Facing off against San Diego State, a team who has struggled to keep teams off the offensive glass, could pave the way for a grinder of a game ending in an upset.
Image per: UAB
Auburn
4 Seed - Auto Bid - SEC
3-7 Quad 1 Record. Despite a very shiny resume with no losses outside of the first quadrants, an impressive margin of victory and great computer numbers, Auburn has just three wins over Quad 1 opponents, with two of them coming in the SEC tournament. If they are able to get past Yale, the Tigers should have plenty of opportunities to prove themselves against the best of the best.
Yale
13 Seed - Auto Bid - Ivy League
38.2 Difference in Acceptance Rate. Though it is an SEC school at the end of the day, the difference in acceptance rates between Auburn and Yale might come as a surprise. The differences between these two programs don’t end with just the type of student they admit. While their best players are big men who can shoot the ball in Danny Wolf and Johni Broome respectively, Yale relies a bit more on getting to the rim. According to Haslametrics, the Bulldogs rank in the top 80 in the nation in their percentage of shots taken around the rim, whereas Auburn doesn’t mind shooting from a bit further out, ranking in the top 40 in mid-range shots attempted.
BYU
6 Seed - At Large - Big 12
18 Teams worse in conference play than in the noncon. After getting off to a blazing start in the first few months of the season, BYU was sixth in the country (per BartTorvik). This was in no small part due to playing against a bottom 50 non-conference schedule in terms of difficulty. However, playing in the toughest conference in the country over the past three months hasn’t been as easy. Struggling against better teams isn’t a surprise, but this is, in no small part, pointing towards underperformance against high-level teams.
Duquesne
11 Seed - Auto Bid - A10
18 More Games. The story of Duquesne reaching the tournament is meaningful in itself. It becomes even more significant with Jimmy Clark emerging as a big reason why the Dukes shocked their way to an 11 seed. Clark played a lesser role at VCU before being dismissed from the program in 2021. He got his revenge after transferring to Duquesne, where he played a much larger role, participating in nearly 20 more games than his final stint at VCU and eventually ending their season in the A10 championship game.
Illinois
3 Seed - Auto Bid - Big Ten
125 points scored in six games. Illinois was cruising through the first few months of the season before Terrence Shannon Jr. was charged with rape/sexual battery. Shannon didn’t play until a judge granted a restraining order, allowing Shannon to continue playing after a mere six-game absence. During this time, Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask took over, averaging over 20 points per game in that stretch. This holds importance if Shannon is taken out of the game by the opposition’s defense, as there are many Illini players who can take over.
Morehead State
Auto Bid - Ohio Valley
2-2 without Jordan Lathon. Seen as one of the premier mid-majors in the first several months of the season, Morehead State faced a setback when their starting wing went down for a short stretch, muddying up the Eagle’s pristine 18-5 (9-1) record before the injury. The Eagles fell to a three seed in their conference tournament but proved themselves dominant. However, this skid could have accounted for a seedline drop, which was unfair to both themselves and Illinois, having to play a tougher team than they may have otherwise expected after winning the conference tournament. Where have we heard this story before?
Image per: Morehead State Athletics
Washington State
7 Seed - At Large - Pac 12
22nd in the Country in potential quick second chance points. Per Haslemetrics, the Cougars are among the top in the nation in scoring off rebounds. This speaks to their ability to get offensive rebounds first and then either carve out space to put it back up or find an open shooter for a quick three after the rebound. This is in no small part due to Oscar Cluff and Isaac Jones, two of Washington State’s bigs who are great offensive rebounders with underrated passing ability.
Drake
10 Seed - Auto Bid - Missouri Valley
668. Though shooting one fewer three this season than the previous, Tucker DeVries has attempted nearly 700 in his three-year career, making him one of the most impressive volume shooters in the country. Though his shot selection, pull-ups, and the attention he gets don’t allow him to be an elite shooter in terms of percentages, he’ll get his points regardless of the opponent.
Iowa State
2 Seed - Auto Bid - Big 12
5%. The Cyclones are among the best defensive units in the country, and this is due in no small part to their lead guard, Tamin Lipsey's ball pressure. He is one of six players in the country with a steal percentage of 5% or greater (per Bart Torvik), and paired with his on-ball abilities on the other end of the court, his importance to his team is no secret.
South Dakota State
15 Seed - Auto Bid - Summit League
7.5% Difference in 3P%. This is the Jackrabbits' second tournament in three years, but they are not as explosive of a three-point shooting team as they were in 2022. Relying a bit more on interior defense this season and playing at a slower pace would point toward this team having a bit more balance than they have had in years past. Despite winning 30 games and going undefeated in conference play two seasons ago, their impressive record and gaudy three-point shooting didn’t lead to a victory in the tournament.
South Region
Houston
1 Seed - At Large - Big 12
3,712 days since losing as badly as they did in the Big 12 tournament. Houston has been one of the best teams in the sport for half a decade, primarily by keeping games close with their strong defense, but this wasn’t the case on the day before Selection Sunday. The last time the Cougars lost by at least 28 points was on January 16, 2014, against the Pitino-led Louisville team that had won the national championship the year before.
Image per: University of Houston Athletics
Longwood
16 Seed - Auto Bid - Big South
12-1 through their first 13. The Lancers won 26 games and were dominant in conference play two seasons ago. That dominance seemed to continue early on this season as well. However, Longwood would go on to lose 12 of their final 18 games, struggling in conference play. Their early record was likely boosted by a non-conference strength of schedule ranking of 344 out of 362. Despite earning a mediocre five seed in the conference tournament, the Lancers ran through the two best teams in their conference, showcasing their potential at the most crucial time.
Nebraska
8 Seed - At Large - Big Ten
3rd overall defense in the past 10 games. The Cornhuskers proved that beating Purdue was no fluke by finishing the season strong and clinching a spot in the tournament for the first time in a decade. Juwan Gary has been a revelation on the defensive end, and his toughness and reliability have been reasons why Nebraska ranks as a top three defense in the nation in the last third of the season (per BartTorvik).
Texas A&M
9 Seed - At Large - SEC
16-5 the last three Marches. Finishing strong to make up for a weak start has become quite common for the Aggies. They were able to turn this year’s strong finish into another tournament appearance. Despite this, the Aggies haven't secured a win in the tournament during this stretch, although their favorable seeding relative to expectations should boost their potential to translate their strong finish into tournament success.
Image per: AP
Wisconsin
5 Seed - At Large - Big Ten
15th in the country since their four game skid. The Badgers once again started their season strong but had a hiccup in conference play, which dropped them down to the five seed. While they were only 6-5 in that time, the Badgers are playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. However, wins are all that matter now; it's not just about performing well against expectations.
James Madison
12 Seed - Auto Bid - Sun Belt
13 Consecutive victories. With the longest win streak in the nation, James Madison was able to knock off Appalachian State, a team that had previously beaten them twice, and secure the Sun Belt’s automatic bid. With only three losses on the season, all to just two teams, this team is not familiar with losing. They were one of the last few teams to lose a game to start the season and are ending it victoriously, just as they started.
Duke
4 Seed - At Large - ACC
4-4 against teams in North Carolina. Two losses against North Carolina and another against State to end their season, along with the fourth ending in a court storming, remain as the most impactful games of the Blue Devils’ season. Struggling to beat the Tar Heels is the reason for Duke’s seeding, marking them as just a good team in the regular season, and not dominant enough to consistently beat lesser teams.
Image Per: AP
Vermont
13 Seed - Auto Bid - America East
19 Years. The Catamounts are a dynasty in their conference, having won three consecutive conference tournaments, and six in the past two decades. Despite this, Vermont hasn’t won a game in the tournament since 2005, and despite the consistent high level performance, John Becker hasn’t put it all together yet for a tournament win.
Texas Tech
6 Seed - At Large - Big 12
167 missed 3’s by Pop Isaacs. As the Red Raider’s go-to scorer, Isaacs is granted opportunities and shots not granted to many others in the country. This resulted in 239 attempted threes, while Isaacs shot only 30%. Forcing Isaacs into shots that statistically are not favorable may lead to the Red Raiders not functioning as efficiently on the offensive end as they could.
Image per: AP
North Carolina State
11 Seed - Auto Bid - ACC
4-10 to close their season. After beginning their season 13-4, with impressive wins over Virginia and Wake Forest, the Wolfpack faltered in the second half of their season, losing 10 of their final 14 games, moving them completely off the bubble, and needing to do what they did- win the conference tournament.
Kentucky
3 Seed - At Large - SEC
46.8% of their games allowing at least 80 points. While not lacking talent or the ability to score points, defense has prevented the Wildcats from amounting to the top of the sport. The Wildcats play at a pace which leads to them surmounting 80 points about as often as their opponents do, but getting into shootouts is dangerous when the ultimate goal is to win six consecutive games.
Image per: AP
Oakland
15 Seed - Auto Bid - Horizon League
2 points off. Greg Kampe’s tenure at Oakland is difficult to top, as he is the longest currently tenured coach in D1, stretching four decades. Trey Townsend was a big reason for Kampe’s 40th season being a special one. Despite not being able to match it, Townsend got within a couple of points to match his coach’s seasons at the helm, dropping 38 points against Milwaukee in the conference championship game.
Florida
7 Seed - At Large - SEC
4-4 in Q1A opportunities. Against the best of the best, the Gators showed out, proving themselves to be a real threat against higher seeded teams in the tournament. A total of four Q1A wins is tied for ninth in the country, and while the SEC was good this season, Florida wasn’t granted the opportunities like a team in the Big 12 would have in terms of high level win opportunities, meaning the Gators made the most of their chances.
Boise State
10 Seed - At Large - Mountain West
4-4 in Q1A opportunities. Among the most poorly seeded teams in the tournament, and a brutal draw for the Gator’s, matching their Q1A record. This not only puts the likelihood of the Gators making a deep run thoroughly in doubt, but the Broncos may struggle to break their streak of nine straight losses in the tournament, and may push their tournament record to 0-10 all time.
Image per: Boise State Athletics
Colorado
10 Seed - At Large - Pac 12
Four volume shooters at least 40% 3PM. As one of the best shooting teams in the country, the Buffaloes do not merely rely on one volume shooter, but have a team full of them. This is a threat to both their matchup in Dayton, and the higher seeds they face beyond this. This potential as an accurate shooting team grants them to pull an upset, though ranking in the bottom quadrant in attempting shots from outside, their game plan may need to change.
Marquette
2 Seed - At Large - Big East
-58 Point differential against UConn. Though The Golden Eagles have looked like a good team this season, losses against Purdue and UConn (thrice) have proven that they have yet to beat the best of the best. While wins against Creighton and Illinois are positive, to win out their region, Marquette may have to do something it has yet to prove itself capable of yet.
Western Kentucky
15 Seed - Auto Bid - Conference USA
11 Years. The Rick Stansbury era was full of high level recruits and strong regular season performances, but Slick Rick was let go after being the only coach in program history to miss the NCAA Tournament during his tenure. Steve Lutz did this in his first season, bringing his high tempo offense to the Hilltoppers, and bringing them to their first tournament since 2013, a long time for this program.
Image per: Western Kentucky University
West Region
North Carolina
1 Seed - At Large - ACC
150 more shots this year for RJ. With Caleb Love no longer on the roster, it wasn’t a big surprise that RJ Davis was more of a focal point for the Tarheel’s offense. Davis has emerged as one of the most important players in the country. Davis has improved as a shooter on the perimeter, as well as a more well rounded passer, abetting his tendency to shoot more with an improved secondary option
Howard
16 Seed - Auto Bid - MEAC
19 points. The Bison lost by seven possessions on the last game of the regular season to top seeded Norfolk State, getting swept by them in the regular season. Eight days after their 19 point blowout against the Spartans, the two teams matched up in the conference tournament semifinals, where the Bison won by six. Though Norfolk State is still up 17 points in the aggregate, Howard won the game that mattered most, ahead of beating Delaware State in the conference championship game.
Wagner
16 Seed - Auto Bid - NEC
3-5 in the first three quadrants. Wagner, by many metrics, is the worst team in the field, despite being just two games under .500 in the first three quadrants in 8 tries. Regardless of this good enough record, the Seahawks are going to Dayton as a 16 seed. This is due to their 11-10 record in Q4, and their three wins coming in the first three quadrants. Of course, crazier things have happened regarding teams in this conference.
Image per: Wagner
Michigan State
8 Seed - At Large - Big Ten
14 losses. The Spartans have more losses than any at-large team, leading to it being a bit of a surprise that they were seeded as highly as they were. No longer will non-conference strength of schedule, NET ratings or margin of outcome relative to expected outcome matter, given that it is tournament time. Michigan State will need to prove themselves as a good team empirically, not merely through the metrics.
Mississippi State
9 Seed - At Large - SEC
Two non-Tennessee Q1 victories. Without their two wins against the two seed in the Midwest, the Bulldogs likely miss the tournament. This begs the question of if Mississippi State is best set to defeat a certain type of team. Guarding the three ball is a skill of the Bulldogs, and while the Volunteers are in the top quadrant in the nation in three pointers attempted, Michigan State, the Bulldog’s first round opponent, are on the other end of the spectrum.
Saint Mary’s
5 Seed - Auto Bid - WCC
57 spots better since 12/1 (BartTorvik). The Gaels having great success after a rough start to the season is no secret, but just how drastic of an improvement they’ve made after starting off 3-5 is impressive. While they played a top 60 non conference schedule, they performed poorly relative to expectations. Once the second half of their schedule began, their road didn’t necessarily get much easier, but wins over UNLV, Colorado State and eventually losing just a single game in conference play shows the Gaels improved greatly past their uninspiring start.
Image per: Saint Mary’s College
Grand Canyon
12 Seed - Auto Bid - WAC
50 FTA. One of the better mid-majors over the past few years, the Lopes put on a show to officially punch their ticket once again, with a dismantling of UT Arlington’s defense, placing constant pressure on the rim, and getting out in transition. Their high level athletes allow for such close looks, which can slow the game down, not allowing their opponents to put anything together. This was on full display in their most important game of the season, getting to the free throw line 50 times, a season high, at the most crucial time.
Alabama
4 Seed - At Large - SEC
57.06 standard deviation of their adjusted defensive efficiency in Oat’s tenure. With three bad and two elite defenses, the top 10 tempo the Tide plays at is a double edged sword, based strongly on the personnel who guard the opposing team. Without a clear defensive stopper, limited weakside rim protection, and fouling at an immense rate, this is one of Oat’s bad defensive years, clearly limiting just for how long the Tide can dance.
Charleston
13 Seed - Auto Bid - CAA
5 conference losses (in two years). Though lacking the gaudy record to gain national attention as they did the previous year, the Cougars were dominant in their newly renamed conference this season, winning both the regular season and tournament title, putting their two year conference record at 31-5. Though the CAA is relatively not a good conference, their improved ranking of 19 out of 32 in conference rank (per KenPom) is negatively affected by the bloat in a mid-major 14 bid league, but the top 8 are quite competitive, highlighted by UNC Wilmington - who beat Charleston twice this season, not even winning a game in the conference tournament, and seven seeded Stony Brook making a run to the title game.
Image per: AP
Clemson
6 Seed - At Large - ACC
41st in the country since starting 9-0. With wins over UAB, Boise State and Alabama early on, the Tigers were on many bracketologist’s one line in early December. Bad losses to lesser opponents have felt as if Clemson has been coasting since then. An early loss to Boston College in the ACC tournament only heightens this feeling.
New Mexico
11 Seed - Auto Bid - Mountain West
0.19 per game. Per Evan Miya, the Lobos are top 20 in the nation in kill shots conceded per game, allowing just one 10-0 scoring run every five games. This is in no small part to their exploding guard play, as between Jamal Mashburn Jr., Donovan Dent and Jaelen House, isolation shot creation and scoring in transition are at a high enough level that this team doesn’t have very many empty possessions.
Image per: AP
Baylor
3 Seed - At Large - Big 12
10 Q1 victories. This mark is tied for fourth in the nation, with loss volume (10 overall) holding the Bears back from a higher seed. Though granted nearly 20 of these high level opportunities through playing in such a difficult conference, Baylor was able to win over half of these games, with games against great opponents to be expected in the later rounds, but Baylor’s reliance on shooting the ball well to make up for their lackluster defense may make them a sneaky pick for an early exit.
Colgate
14 Seed - Auto Bid - Patriot
One player shot above 40% from outside. Having gained the reputation over several years as a team that can shoot the ball quite well, and dominate their conference while doing so, it was a step back this season for the Raiders, at least in that department. While they were still above 35% from outside as a team, this was merely within the top 100, rather than the top 10 as we’ve become accustomed to seeing. After three consecutive years of having three volume shooters shoot above 40% on their roster, only Chandler Baker remains above this elite clip this season. While this has meant a different focus this season, the Raiders have had no difficulties replicating their success..
Dayton
7 Seed - At Large - A10
40.2% from outside. The Flyers rank highly on both shooting accuracy from outside, in addition to the rate at which they take threes. Paired with DaRon Holmes, a superior athlete more reliant on his interior game, the overall offensive threat Dayton possesses provides them an obvious advantage over any opponent.
Image per: University of Dayton
Nevada
10 Seed - At Large - Mountain West
8-3 Road Record. Playing in a six bid conference makes the Wolfpack’s many road wins all the more impressive. While this may not seem the most relevant given their first round game against Dayton is in Salt Lake City, this record proves that in a year where so many teams struggled to win road games, Nevada is not like many other 10 seeds, and remains elite relative to expectation, seeding, conference-based, or otherwise.
Arizona
2 Seed - At Large - Pac 12
One more Q2 than Q1 loss. Arizona’s style of play lends them to a greater span of possibilities than most teams, given the additional possessions granted to the other team presented by the Wildcat’s up-tempo. This means some unexpected losses, as well as high level wins. We haven’t seen a deep run in the tournament in either of Tommy Lloyd’s top seeded chances the past two seasons, and projecting another loss to a 15 seed, or a run to the Final Four isn’t out of the question.
Long Beach State
15 Seed - Auto Bid - Big West
5-5 before their coach was let go. Head coach Dan Monson ended the season by splitting his final 10 games, though the order in which this was done is among the most interesting aspects of the story of the Beach. After starting off 5-5 in conference, Long Beach State rolled off five consecutive wins, including key games against UC Davis and UC San Diego. At 10-5, Monson had his team destined for a top seed, but a difficult stretch to end the season, including the return game against UC Davis, against Irvine and at Hawai’i, led to Monson being let go, but allowed to coach his team in the conference tournament. Had the order of these games been reversed, it is unlikely Monson would’ve been fired. Though having his team rally around the flag via the news of his firing could’ve been motivation for his team which otherwise wouldn’t have been present.
Image per: AP
Midwest Region
Purdue
1 Seed - At Large - Big Ten
-19 FTA differential in their last three tournament losses. The way in which Zach Edey is officiated has been one of the hottest topics in the sport this season. Being labeled a fraud aided both height and a loose whistle isn’t supported by three consecutive losses to double digit seeds in the tournament. The backcourt’s ability to rise to the occasion if Edey is to receive extra defensive attention without getting to the line is what to watch in Purdue’s revenge tour.
Montana State
16 Seed - Auto Bid - Big Sky
34.6%. Per KenPom, UT Arlington transfer Brandon Walker has attempted nearly a third of his team’s shots while on the court. This ranks 8th in the nation, but it wasn’t needed for the Bobcat’s surprise run through the conference tournament, averaging about nine shots attempted per game during their run.
Image per: AP
Grambling State
16 Seed - Auto Bid - SWAC
2-10 to start the season. I picked the Tigers to win their conference at the beginning of the season, and while their record to start the year may make this selection seem unfortunate, this is how it goes for low-majors, playing victim in bye games to fund their athletic department. Despite an ugly record early, the Tigers eventually proved themselves to be the best team in the SWAC, winning both the conference regular season and the conference tournament- their first tournament appearance in program history.
Utah State
8 Seed - At Large - Mountain West
1.63 predicted seedlines off on the Bracket Matrix. Predicted by many, including myself, to be on the six line, the head scratching seeding of Mountain West teams by the Selection Committee puts both their first round matchup at a disadvantage, and the team they have to face if they’re able to earn a second game. Purdue will have an uphill battle if both teams are able to make it to the Round of 32, as this would be closer to a second weekend game than a first.
TCU
9 Seed - At Large - Big 12
4.6% Better from three this season. After doing just about everything well last season aside from shooting from outside, the Horned Frogs made an effort of acquiring shooting via the transfer portal. With Tre Tennyson a great option from outside, TCU is built more appropriately this season, despite being three seedlines worse.
Gonzaga
5 Seed - At Large - WCC
45.1% of games with Graham Ike in foul trouble. Having emerged as Gonzaga’s best player down the stretch, the struggle has been to keep Ike on the court. With four or more fouls in nearly half of Gonzaga’s games the hypothetical of Ike picking up two fouls early in a game, and then drawing a third before the first media timeout after halftime certainly exists. This could mean Gonzaga has to figure it out in an elimination game without their best player on the court- though they’ve clearly gotten used to it.
Image per: AP
McNeese
12 Seed - Auto Bid - Southland
324th in minutes continuity (KenPom). Will Wade completely flipped his program in his first year at the helm, with conference DPOY Christian Shumate being the most meaningful returner. Despite this, the Cowboys won 30 games, and were far and away the best team in the Southland, their talent level clearly heads and shoulders above their opponents, their lack of high level opportunities being the only thing holding them back from being in the at-large conversation before winning their league’s auto bid.
Kansas
4 Seed - At Large - Big 12
52nd in the country since McCullar’s injury (BartTorvik). Kevin has cemented himself as the Jayhawk’s best player and since getting injured, Kansas hasn’t been a top 50 team. Their lack of a bench is dangerous against a team that loves to press like Samford, and if McCullar remains less than 100%, it could be consecutive first weekend exits after winning the National Championship in 2022.
Image per: AP
Samford
13 Seed - Auto Bid - Southern Conference
53 point loss. There are not many close games to begin a college basketball season, with most teams either playing a buy game as the team paying or the team being paid. Samford was the latter to start their season, and the Boilermakers made what was expected to be a good team relative to their conference look absolutely silly. Since then, Samford has lost just four games while winning 29, with a winning streak of 17 games in the process. While they don’t have a win against a tournament team in that time, what more could you ask out of a team- especially after a start like theirs.
South Carolina
6 Seed - At Large - SEC
2nd overall in KenPom’s Luck rating. The Gamecocks have been able to win many close games this season, but the means in which they have done so has led to the metrics not treating them quite so kindly. Teams are more likely to shoot worse against South Carolina - relative to their own averages. At the end of the day, winning 26 games is a great achievement, but the luck data paired with how poor the Gamecocks have performed whilelosing is cause for concern.
Oregon
11 Seed - Auto Bid - Pac 12
62 Combined games from their star freshmen. The Ducks likely would not have needed to steal a bid had their entire team been healthy. With just eight scholarship players by the end of the season, some were asked to have a role who might not have otherwise. Jackson Shelstad and Kwame Evans are two such examples, key parts of the rotation, playing in 62 of their team’s 66 games.
Image Per: University of Oregon
Creighton
3 Seed - At Large - Big East
4 Q2 losses. Though not discussed in the same realm as Arizona, perhaps Creighton should be. The Blue Jays were one of the easier “good wins” this year, especially for teams near the cutline. Beating UConn proves that the Blue Jays have the ability to beat the best teams in the country, but expecting them to get tripped up ahead of a potential matchup with a one or two seed should come as less of a shock than it may.
Akron
14 Seed - Auto Bid - MAC
41 rebounds. An issue for mid-majors in their first round matchup is getting out-muscled inside and losing the rebounding battle, especially after forcing a missed shot. This isn’t an issue with Enrique Freeman, who is among the best rebounders in the country, and shouldn’t have to worry about allowing too many second chances for his opponent. In their three run game in their conference tournament, Freeman poured in 41 total rebounds, including 21 against Ohio.
Image per: AP
Tennessee
2 Seed - At Large - SEC
Four straight years with a top 5 defense (KenPom). Rick Barnes has had a ton of success over the past few regular seasons, but has yet to exceed the Sweet 16 during his time in Knoxville. In the past, this was blamed by his team relying too much on the defensive end of the court, and struggling to score when the game slowed down. At the end of the day, judging a coach by their performance in elimination games rather than their full body of work is unfair, especially when we consider the randomness of the tournament involved. The sustained success Barnes has displayed the past several years is an accomplishment in and of itself.
Saint Peter’s
15 Seed - Auto Bid - MAAC
x2. When pulling off an upset, one of the easiest ways for a seemingly overmatched team to succeed is through shooting the ball well. The Peacocks are familiar with finding the hot hand and beating higher seeded teams. Marcus Randolph is their best shooter, and he was allowed to be a bigger part of the offense after transferring from Richmond. Randolph has doubled his three point volume from the previous season, while still shooting 45% from outside.
-BM