Misery is a Blue Devil
Ranked 298th in preseason rankings, Central Connecticut's Blue Devils are far from a favorite in most basketball circles. It’s even more surprising that, given their rating, after just a week into the college basketball season, they’re considered favorites to win the NEC.
Preseason NEC Ratings
The NEC’s schedule is heavily reliant on conference play in January and February, with early-season games often serving as buy games against stronger opponents. Last season, Wagner, despite a modest 4-6 record against D1 teams, managed to capture the conference tournament title. Their improbable success continued in the NCAA tournament’s First Four, where they made a brief run against North Carolina in the Round of 64, staying within striking distance for a while before the Tar Heels surged to a 30-point victory.
The NEC knows what it is. It has been among the lowest ranked conferences year over year, this past season, finishing at the bottom of KenPom’s rankings, as the 33rd ranked conference in the country.
Independent of this ranking, Central Connecticut has begun the season quite well. This is after several seasons of struggle and disconnect.
While Central Connecticut’s ratings may not appear impressive in isolation, when compared to the average rankings of teams in the NEC, they stand out. By the end of the previous season, the average team in the NEC was ranked 325th out of 364 teams in my preseason ratings. Central Connecticut, ranked 298th, sits notably ahead of its conference rivals, suggesting that despite the team's struggles, they still outperform the competition at the start of the new season. This relative strength, even within a weaker conference, positions the Blue Devils in a more favorable light for the upcoming year.
With all this context of low expectations for both the team and the conference provided, it is a surprise that the Blue Devils have made some noise early in the season.
Hard Sell
Donyell Marshall left Patrick Sellers with a program struggling to find success, having won only five of their 21 games in 2021. The Marshall era never saw the Blue Devils finish outside the bottom 50 in the nation (KP), continuing a trend that began under the Dickenman era in the mid-2010s. During that period, Central Connecticut endured consecutive seasons of five wins or fewer, marking nearly a decade of difficulties in New Britain.
Sellers, a familiar face to the program, came to the helm with substantial experience. A former UConn associate head coach under Jim Calhoun between 2007 and 2010, he brought extensive coaching pedigree to Central Connecticut. A graduate from the early 90s, Sellers had also been an assistant during one of the program’s most successful periods in recent history, including a 25-win season and an NCAA Tournament appearance in 2000.
Sellers pictured next to hall of fame coach, Jim Calhoun in 2009 (AP)
Sellers welcomed back key veterans like Nigel Scantlebury and Stephane Ayangma from the previous season, but the 2022 campaign was undeniably a transition year for Central Connecticut. With five freshmen seeing starting roles at different points in the season, the Blue Devils showed signs of rebuilding under new leadership.
Despite the coaching change, the outcome remained largely unchanged. The Blue Devils finished with a similar record, winning single-digit games for the third consecutive season. Their KenPom ranking also reflected their struggles, dropping slightly from 345 in 2021 to 346 in 2022, showing that the program was still in the early stages of rebuilding under Sellers.
The Best Thing About Freshman…
The 2022 Central Connecticut Blue Devils featured several promising underclassmen, with notable performances from sophomore Andre Snoddy and Davonte Sweatman. Snoddy finished 17th in the NEC in points produced in 2023, ranking second on the team in field goal attempts, with his contributions a key part of the team's offense. Sweatman, the team’s top shooter, impressed by hitting 41% of his two three-point attempts per game, becoming another significant player in Sellers' first year.
These players represented a core group that the Blue Devils needed to build around, especially considering that the NEC typically isn’t a major landing spot for high-caliber transfers. Retaining and developing these pieces would be crucial for future success.
As reflected in KenPom, Coach Patrick Sellers has made notable strides in Central Connecticut's program, especially in terms of retaining talent and fostering a stronger team culture. In 2023, the Blue Devils broke double digits in wins for the first time in years, despite a challenging start to the season. They endured a nine-game losing streak to open the year, with six of those losses coming on the road, but they managed to rebound through solid conference play. As previously mentioned, for NEC programs, strong performances in conference games are crucial to success, especially when non-conference slates tend to be more difficult.
With 53% of their minutes returning in 2024, this season was considered a key opportunity for Sellers to make a push with his team, now led by a solid core of juniors. The Blue Devils showed significant improvement early in the season, finishing 6-7 in non-conference play. Key wins against UMass Lowell and Fordham marked their progress. Given that the NEC is generally considered a lower-tier conference, their schedule frequently involves a high number of road games.
Despite this, the Blue Devils posted a 3-5 road record in non-conference games, matching their best road performance since 2020, according to Torvik. This trend signals a steady upward trajectory for Sellers and Central Connecticut as they continue to develop and build upon their success.
The most significant results for Central Connecticut came during the conference season. Under Coach Patrick Sellers, the Blue Devils, led by standout Allan Jeanne-Rose, an All-NEC player who joined the team from Fairfield, managed to win a share of the regular-season title. Central Connecticut finished tied with Merrimack, marking a major accomplishment for the program.
Dangerous Liaisons
Despite a strong finish to the regular season, Wagner ultimately represented the NEC in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
With a minutes continuity of 50.9% in minutes, the goal for this season is clear: reach the NCAA Tournament, a feat the Blue Devils haven't achieved since 2007. Through just two games, the team appears ready to meet that challenge. They faced a tough start with two road games in the opening week. The first was against Providence, a team that finished in the top 70 of my rankings last season and is expected to remain competitive in 2025.
The second game was against Saint Joseph's, a team also in that competitive range. Led by the reigning A10 Freshman of the Year, the Hawks were expected to be a strong contender in the A10, ranked second in my preseason projections for the conference.
The first two games of the Blue Devils season were against two preseason top 70 teams, with Providence and Saint Joseph’s in the mix with a handful of competitive teams.
Through two games, the Blue Devils have a point differential of +2, sitting at 1-1. They opened their season with a four-point loss to Providence and followed it up with a six-point defeat to Saint Joseph's on the first Friday of the season.
My expectations for Central Connecticut were similar to KenPom, who had them ranked 303rd. After their 1-1 start, the Blue Devils have surged up 77 spots to 226th.
Jordan Jones has been the primary scoring force early this season. After transferring from Coker University, he made the all-NEC team in 2024, finishing in the top 10 in the conference for scoring. In the loss to Providence, he scored 21 points, showing his ability to contribute significantly on offense.
Jayden Brown, a fourth-year player and a key figure in Patrick Sellers' program, has made a name for himself as both a rim protector and an effective shooter, embodying the role of a glue guy for the Blue Devils. Similarly, Abdul Momoh, another fourth-year player, has been a crucial shot blocker for the team. He has played an average of 34.5 minutes per game through the first two contests, showcasing both his importance to the rotation and the trust Sellers has in him.
Led by experienced and familiar players, it has been a very good start for the fourth year of the Patrick Sellers tenure.
Although Central Connecticut struggles with rebounding (-7 rebound differential), they have excelled in turnover differential, currently at +9. This indicates that the Blue Devils, a veteran squad, are focused on minimizing self-inflicted mistakes, even as they face high-level competition.
While the early performance is promising, it’s important to temper expectations for now. The team may not generate much attention again until February, as teams in this conference are often limited in what they can accomplish. However, upcoming December games against UMass Lowell and Massachusetts could provide more insight into the Blue Devils' potential.
Through these two games, opponents have shot 24.2% from three against Central Connecticut. However, as is typical in college basketball, some regression and bad luck are likely to follow. The season is as long as it is unpredictable.
-BM