Searching for the Next Lamont Paris
.... or the anti Dennis Gates
The ‘Cocks
Ending the 2023 season ranked 220 (out of 363), South Carolina lost their best player, GG Jackson, to the draft, leaving now second year coach Lamont Paris without much to show for. Though there have been highs and lows over the past decade and a half, Paris’ first season in Columbia was a difficult mark, and subsequently the sixth consecutive season of missing the NCAA Tournament.
South Carolina is a tough job and a historically poorer performing team by High Major standards. Coming into Paris’ second season, expectations placed the Gamecocks to finish in the 100 range again, while I had them preseason 88th overall. Universally, they were not seen as a tournament team.
Some other second year coaches (hired in Spring/Summer of 2022) from this past season were more obvious candidates to have sophomore soars, including Butler’s Thad Matta, Todd Golden at Florida and Kyle Neptune at Villanova. Each program’s reverence plays no small part in these expectations, making Paris, having among the best season out of all the 2022-23 hires even more impressive.
The Variables
To overperform, two conditions need to be met. Firstly, you need to still be at that program, which discludes the coaches below.
One Year Wonders
Danny Sprinke - Utah St. (28-7, overperformed by 84 spots)
Josh Eilert - West Virginia (9-23, underperformed by 58 spots)
Steve Lutz - Western Kentucky (22-12, overperformed by 16 spots)
Sundance Wicks - Green Bay (18-14, overperformed by 66 spots)
Secondly, if Paris had a first year which was to, or above expectations, then his rise would have been more predictable; three out of the four coaches listed above had a strong enough first season that they didn’t get a second.
Best Performing Coaches, Relative to (1-362) Expectations (23-24 Cycle)
Worst Performing Coaches, Relative to (1-362) Expectations (23-24 Cycle)
Turning around a program in a second season is more accessible when you have the backing of a High Major program, independent of that program’s prestige. Below are the second year coaches at big schools whose economic backing could realistically ignite a jump of over 150 teams from one April to the next.
Low Hanging Fruit
Ed Cooley - Georgetown (9-23, underperformed by 79 spots)
Chris Beard - Mississippi (20-12, underperformed by 62 spots)
Rick Pitino - St. John’s (20-23, underperformed by one spot)
While I’m not doubting the coaches listed above, their likelihood of having a great second season is more obvious than is worth talking about. Lamont Paris wasn’t a highly accomplished coach in the Big East, a coach that provided a Big 12 program their best season in school history, nor a top 10 coach of all time, like Cooley, Beard or Pitino.
The Candidates
Damon Stoudamire, Georgia Tech
Among the high major coaches, Stoudamire has to be the favorite. The boxes below are all checked:
High major coach
Lower tier program in conference
Rough first season
Solid history at a tough, mid-major job
Note size of data point is relative to ACC finish; color of data point is relative to qualifying for the NCAA Tournament.
Though most high major coaches struggle at a tough job in a tough conference in their first season, the patches of hope are visible for Damon. Wins against Mississippi St, Duke, Clemson, UNC and Wake Forest would’ve positioned this team as a real contender in the ACC, had it not been for their 12 losses outside of the first quadrant.
Stoudamire’s first season brought in intriguing incoming talent, rated as the 17th best transfer class. This talent is highlighted via the Yellow Jacket’s high level wins, while their inconsistency is mired by their lack of experience. This was the fourth least experienced team in the ACC, and had a comparable rank in regards to minute continuity from one season to the next.
Jaeden Mustaf and Darrion Sutton are four star freshmen who have enrolled to join Georgia Tech’s program for this upcoming season. Stoudamire remained busy in the portal as well, adding Ryan Mutombo and Javian McCollum, two of the better options.
Through retaining now sophomores Baye Ndongo and Naithan George, the pieces are very much present to build off from the previous season. Stoudamire is in a favorable place to have a top 30 team this season, and surprise many in the process.
Bryan Hodgson, Arkansas State
While Hodgson’s 2023 already topped Mike Balado’s best season during his six year tenure, the Sun Belt is a competitive conference that merely a good season is forgotten in the grand scheme of things. In addition to this, even though it was a good season, it wasn’t one that exceeded expectations. Despite the Red Wolves finishing, as projected, in fourth place, an underwhelming non-con, including a home loss to Jackson St. revealed the Sun Belt to be a two horse race, leaving Arkansas State in the dust.
Like many other first year coaches, the second half of the season was stronger than the first. In fact, the Red Wolves ended their year 10-3, after losing to James Madison on 2/7. During this stretch, Troy was taken down twice, the third place team in the league, and Appalachain State’s tournament hopes were snuffed in the Sun Belt semifinals, by Hodgson and company.
This strong finish was based on a team coming into their own. Firstly, pace was slowed down, and shots were picked slightly more carefully in the half court. Overall, eight fewer threes per game were taken compared to the first three months of Hodgson’s season. In addition to this, defensive woes were overcome, as Arkansas State’s (allowed) free throw rate dropped by 14% from February 8th onward.
Part of the success was based on personnel changes as well. Prized transfer Freddy Hicks missed several games to begin conference play, and after settling back into his role, it was clear just how important he was to the Wolves. Secondly, after playing off the bench for a few weeks, Taryn Todd took over the starting wing role for the final 12 games.
Most encouragingly has been what Hodgson has accomplished in the offseason. Arkansas State has landed its three best recruits in school history, including a top 100 recruit, Josh Hill. Hill is joined by Justin Johnson and R'Chaun King, two three-star forwards who will look to prosper for years to come in Jonesboro. These three recruits has Arkansas State posting a top 80 incoming class in the country, and the best in the Sun Belt.
Ross Hodge, North Texas
When considering the most reliable mid-major teams over the past handful of years, the Mean Green should come to mind. With Grant McCasland being rewarded for the defensive-minded, winning culture for six strong seasons in Denton with a Big 12 job, Ross Hodge was given the keys.
By retaining Aaron Scott and Rubin Jones from McCasland’s 2022-2023 team, Hodge was provided with both the defensive intensity both players bring to the court, as well as shooting. In the strong five year stretch which I’ve referenced, North Texas hasn’t fallen outside of the top 100 in 3PT percentage. This past season, the Mean Green were within the top 25, some impressive company to keep.
Unsurprisingly, the majority of the teams that rank among the elite in the sport at outside shooting finished the season within my top 50, with a good variance of number of threes attempted per night. North Texas, while attempting a relative moderate number of threes, ended up ranking in the bottom five of these elite shooting teams. Producing points on the offensive end isn’t an issue, which is a box hundreds of teams in the country wish they could similarly check.
A season outside of the top 50 for North Texas isn’t one without context, though, as this was the team’s first season in a more competitive conference. Despite maintaining a similar average height (per KenPom), 76” stack up differently in the American. This shows up in the team’s second change percentage allowed, as per Haslametrics, the team went from top 30 in the sport in denying makes shortly following an offensive rebound to outside of the top 200. Not only were conversions more prevalent, opportunities were as well, with the Mean Green among the 50 worst teams in the country at allowing offensive rebounds.
With a problem identified, the solution is solved, as expected, via the transfer portal. The tallest commit is an intra-conference transfer, Florida Atlantic’s Brenen Lorient. While he played sparingly in two seasons in Boca Raton, in a conference game this season against the Mean Green, Lorient had two offensive rebounds.
A team coming into their own in a new conference paired with a coach deeply instilled in the winningness we’ve seen in Denton over the last few years, provides one of the best second year options for a coach in the sport.
-BM