Ranking the 363 D1 Men's Basketball Teams After the 2022-23 Season

Even a broken clock...

I published an incredibly long-winded breakdown of each team at the start of the season. This feels like a more manageable means of understanding the past five months. The postseason list of 1-368, in addition to what it was at the beginning of the year, is included here, or directly at the bottom of the article, after the WCC.

Here’s a breakdown of my methodologies:

• Talent throughout the (healthy) roster

• Potential with a full roster

• Wins and losses in the regular season

• Performance in the postseason

Please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (or Linkedin) to tell me how wrong I was about my 8th-place NEC team.

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A10

Preseason Favorite- Dayton (Preseason #21, underperformed by 37 spots)

Biggest Miss- Loyola Chicago (Preseason #96, underperformed by 168 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• VCU (AQ) - Lost to St. Mary’s in the Round of 64

36. VCU (Preseason #54, overperformed by 18 spots)

58. Dayton (Preseason #21, underperformed by 37 spots)

94. Saint Louis (Preseason #28, underperformed by 66 spots)

144. Fordham (Preseason #161, overperformed by 17 spots)

151. Duquesne (Preseason #258, overperformed by 107 spots)

156. George Mason (Preseason #133, underperformed by 23 spots)

157. Davidson (Preseason #108, underperformed by 49 spots)

166. Richmond (Preseason #113, underperformed by 53 spots)

178. St. Bonaventure (Preseason #123, underperformed by 55 spots)

183. Saint Joseph's (Preseason #164, underperformed by 19 spots)

195. Massachusetts (Preseason #102, underperformed by 93 spots)

210. George Washington (Preseason #141, underperformed by 69 spots)

242. La Salle (Preseason #239, underperformed by 3 spots)

260. Rhode Island (Preseason #138, underperformed by 122 spots)

264. Loyola Chicago (Preseason #96, underperformed by 168 spots)

Image Credit: Fordham Athletics

With two preseason top 30 teams, the A10 had a solid chance to have a team make the second weekend since Dayton made the Elite Eight as an 11 seed in 2014. Instead, this was the first year since 2005 that the conference earned a single bid to the tournament. Injuries to the two Kobe’s (Koby), Brea and Elvis as well as a lack of depth, especially when getting into foul trouble down the stretch shot down the Flyer’s aspirations of a top-five seed, the highest seed in the conference has seen since this same team likely would have been a top-two seed in 2020. While Dayton and Saint Louis did not meet expectations, two teams near the bottom, Fordham and Duquesne overperformed. The high-profile coaches, Archie Miller, Fran Dunphy, and Frank Martin all had teams that finished in the conference's bottom quadrant, hinting at rebuild projects instead of the instant success that these experienced coaches might have counted on. Though first-year head coach Keith Urgo found success, throughout the board, the conference disappointed, and a NET Conference Ranking of 12, alarmingly low for a conference that generally ranks closer to the WCC than the Sun Belt,  would best highlight this letdown.

ACC

Preseason Favorite- Virginia (Preseason #4, underperformed by 23 spots)

Biggest Miss- Louisville (Preseason #105, underperformed by 164 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Miami (FL) (5 Seed) (AL) - Lost to UConn in the Final Four

• Duke (5 Seed) (AQ) - Lost to Tennessee in the Round of 32

• Virginia (4 Seed) (AL) - Lost to Furman in the Round of 64

• Pittsburgh (11 Seed) (AL) - Lost to Xavier in the Round of 32

• North Carolina State (11 Seed) (AL) - Lost to Creighton in the Round of 64

10. Miami (FL) (Preseason #16, overperformed by 6 spots)

13. Duke (Preseason #7, underperformed by 6 spots)

27. Virginia (Preseason #4, underperformed by 23 spots)

45. Pittsburgh (Preseason #93, overperformed by 48 spots)

48. North Carolina State (Preseason #81, overperformed by 33 spots)

59. North Carolina (Preseason #14, underperformed by 45 spots)

71. Clemson (Preseason #68, underperformed by 3 spots)

76. Wake Forest (Preseason #72, underperformed by 4 spots)

81. Virginia Tech (Preseason #42, underperformed by 39 spots)

97. Syracuse (Preseason #86, underperformed by 11 spots)

138. Boston College (Preseason #79, underperformed by 59 spots)

140. Notre Dame (Preseason #59, underperformed by 81 spots)

147. Georgia Tech (Preseason #204, overperformed by 57 spots)

199. Florida State (Preseason #45, underperformed by 154 spots)

269. Louisville (Preseason #105, underperformed by 164 spots)

Image Credit: Travis Bell/Sideline Carolina

After producing two Final Four teams in what was a down Regular Season in 2022, the trend repeated itself, with Miami this time carrying the tournament burden. Though Duke and North Carolina were both top 10 teams in many people’s minds, Virginia, as predicted, shot out of a cannon, sweeping the Roman Main Event in November, and going on to share a conference title with the aforementioned Miami, as Virginia struggled down the stretch, while Miami flourished following being blown out early in the season by Maryland. The AP Poll’s top team was ranked as the third in the ACC in the preseason version of the 1-363, and 14th overall. The late-season magic Hubert Davis’ team was able to find last year was not shown to be replicable, namely against good teams, as the Tar Heels finished with just one Quad 1 victory. Two teams surged following lower preseason rankings, with Pitt and NC State both making the tournament as 11 seeds. This overperformance by these tournament teams was contrasted by Florida State and Notre Dame greatly underperforming, finishing in the bottom fourth of the conference, with one coach already gone, and the second, that being Leonard Hamilton, likely in his final few seasons in Tallahassee. 

America East

Preseason Favorite- Vermont (Preseason #89, underperformed by 27 spots)

Biggest Miss- Binghamton (Preseason #163, underperformed by 149 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Vermont (15 Seed) (AQ) - Lost to Marquette in the Round of 64

116. Vermont (Preseason #89, underperformed by 27 spots)

117. UMass Lowell (Preseason #199, overperformed by 82 spots)

226. Bryant (Preseason #134, underperformed by 92 spots)

249. UMBC (Preseason #265, overperformed by 16 spots)

282. New Hampshire (Preseason #329, overperformed by 47 spots)

289. Maine (Preseason #358, overperformed by 69 spots)

312. Binghamton (Preseason #163, underperformed by 149 spots)

322. NJIT (Preseason #290, underperformed by 32 spots)

347. Albany (Preseason #339, underperformed by 8 spots)

Image Credit: New Hampshire Athletics

Domination is generally expected for the Catamounts in the John Becker era, and this was in question after a 15-point loss to the UMass Lowell River Hawks in January. A River Hawks team that has never been to the tournament began the season 14-2, but inconsistencies on the defensive end, alongside turnover issues led to some inconsistencies in what were unchartered waters for Pat Duquette at his current position. The Catamounts went on to win 15 straight after dropping that game, including the return game in Burlington by 12 points. Binghamton was expected to compete with these two teams atop the conference, but what was an over performing squad for Levell Sanders last year was an underperforming one this year. Their defense fell off a cliff. The Bearcats were aggressive on the ball, fouling a good amount, leading to a good amount of free throws. Despite this approach, their turnover rate wouldn’t reflect such a foul happy team. Though Jakob Falko was among the best guards in the conference, there wasn’t the defense nor the ball handling behind him to live up to expectations.

American

Preseason Favorite- Houston (Preseason #2, underperformed by 2 spots)

Biggest Miss- Tulsa (Preseason #176, underperformed by 155 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Houston (AL) (1 Seed) - Lost to Miami in the Sweet 16

• Memphis (AQ) (8 Seed) - Lost to Florida Atlantic in the Round of 64

4. Houston (Preseason #2, underperformed by 2 spots)

14. Memphis (Preseason #29, overperformed by 15 spots)

60. UCF (Preseason #94, overperformed by 34 spots)

67. Cincinnati (Preseason #78, overperformed by 11 spots)

98. Tulane (Preseason #33, underperformed by 65 spots)

109. Wichita State (Preseason #100, underperformed by 9 spots)

112. Temple (Preseason #37, underperformed by 75 spots)

148. South Florida (Preseason #114, underperformed by 34 spots)

167. East Carolina (Preseason #159, underperformed by 8 spots)

174. SMU (Preseason #85, underperformed by 89 spots)

331. Tulsa (Preseason #176, underperformed by 155 spots)

Image Credit: Cincinnati Athletics

The biggest storyline from the season might be Houston’s failure to meet what seemed to be the season-long expectations to make the Final Four. Though the conference’s crown jewel was aided by a weaker top half, the lack of competition between January and the start of March might’ve hurt the Cougars once they faced other high level teams in the tournament. UCF being the third best team in the conference when they were at best mediocre would point towards this. Isaac Brown’s time at the helm in Wichita ended after two disappointing years as the non-interim head coach. Cincinnati was expected to be a borderline tournament team and was a step below that. Tulane might’ve been the most disappointing of these teams, having regressed from what was supposed to be a springboard year in 2022. Though their ultra fast pace continued from the previous year, their shooting dropped three percentage points, and with a less efficient halfcourt offense, the Green Wave struggled to match the offensive production their system granted their opponents in possession volume. With conference realignment disrupting this conference, the depth will really be brought into question from next season onward.

ASUN

Preseason Favorite- Jacksonville (Preseason #91, underperformed by 136 spots)

Biggest Miss- Eastern Kentucky (Preseason #328, overperformed by 173 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Kennesaw State (AQ) (14 Seed) - Lost to Xavier in the Round of 64

• Eastern Kentucky (CBI) - Lost to Charlotte in the championship game

89. Liberty (Preseason #116, overperformed by 27 spots)

115. Kennesaw State (Preseason #237, overperformed by 122 spots)

149. Lipscomb (Preseason #298, overperformed by 149 spots)

155. Eastern Kentucky (Preseason #328, overperformed by 173 spots)

191. Florida Gulf Coast (Preseason #219, overperformed by 28 spots)

206. Stetson (Preseason #357, overperformed by 151 spots)

208. Queens (Preseason #338, overperformed by 130 spots)

227. Jacksonville (Preseason #91, underperformed by 136 spots)

229. North Florida (Preseason #213, underperformed by 16 spots)

234. Jacksonville State (Preseason #244, overperformed by 10 spots)

253. Bellarmine (Preseason #259, overperformed by 6 spots)

262. North Alabama (Preseason #348, overperformed by 86 spots)

313. Central Arkansas (Preseason #307, underperformed by 6 spots)

328. Austin Peay (Preseason #266, underperformed by 62 spots)

Image Credit: Eastern Kentucky University Athletics

Jacksonville and Jacksonville State were two of the more impressive teams in the ASUN tournament in 2022 and had expected to continue their rise in the conference, countering Liberty, which elevated itself into powerhouse status. Both Jacksonvilles finished in the 150 range on KenPom in March 2020, with State, having finished first in the conference being gifted the tournament bid, with Jacksonville being unable to take advantage of the downed one seed and top the ineligible Bellarmine Knights. Fittingly, after one of the biggest misses of the preseason rankings, both teams finished 233rd and 234th on KenPom. The loss of Tommy Bruner was huge for the Dolphins, with the transfers expected to fill the holes doing very little to supplant the point guard’s scoring. Bruner was the type of defender this program desperately needed as they struggled to create more possessions for their offense off of turnovers. Kennesaw State on the other hand was a very positive surprise, winning both the Regular Season title and the Conference Tournament, putting up a valiant 35 minutes against Xavier in the first round of the tournament. Through shooting the ball well, and causing turnovers, the Owls were able to top Liberty both in their sole Regular Season meeting and in the Conference Tournament. Darius McGee is far and away the best player in Flame program history, and Ritchie McKay will have to navigate the conference for the first time without him in half a decade.

Big 12

Preseason Favorite- Baylor (Preseason #5, underperformed by 21 spots)

Biggest Miss- Kansas State (Preseason #69, overperformed by 53 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Kansas (AL) (1 Seed) - Lost to Arkansas in the Round of 32

• Texas (AQ) (2 Seed) - Lost to Miami in the Elite Eight

• Kansas State (AL) (3 Seed) - Lost to Florida Atlantic in the Elite Eight

• TCU (AL) (6 Seed) - Lost to Gonzaga in the Round of 32

• Baylor (AL) (3 Seed) - Lost to Creighton in the Round of 32

• Iowa State (AL) (6 Seed) - Lost to Pitt in the Round of 64

• West Virginia (AL) (9 Seed) - Lost to Maryland in the Round of 64

2. Kansas (Preseason #10, overperformed by 8 spots)

9. Texas (Preseason #22, overperformed by 13 spots)

16. Kansas State (Preseason #69, overperformed by 53 spots)

22. TCU (Preseason #11, underperformed by 11 spots)

26. Baylor (Preseason #5, underperformed by 21 spots)

34. Iowa State (Preseason #39, overperformed by 5 spots)

39. West Virginia (Preseason #52, overperformed by 13 spots)

46. Oklahoma State (Preseason #34, underperformed by 12 spots)

57. Oklahoma (Preseason #47, underperformed by 10 spots)

65. Texas Tech (Preseason #41, underperformed by 24 spots)

Image Credit: Associated Press

By far the best conference in the country once again had all ten of its members with the potential to make the tournament, though only seven of those ten did, four of the bid-getters being top three seeds. Despite the Final Four contenders throughout the league, there wasn’t a single team that made it out of the second weekend. Though there was a case for possibly five of these teams to reach Houston, each had their glaring holes. Kansas, which set a record with 17 Quad 1 wins, had their coach go down due to a medical emergency, and he missed both of their tournament games. Had he been on the sidelines, a win against Arkansas was much more likely than the single possession loss which was the ultimate outcome. Texas lost their coach for a more sinister (alleged, later retracted) reason, and though they had an undoubtedly talented team, an interim coach has a very difficult job. Kansas State was the most surprising team of the bunch, and though they went as far as any Big 12 team, the fact that they were universally the last place team coming into the season spoke towards them reaching their ceiling as a second weekend team. TCU has been outlined as a case study, a horrid shooting team that excelled in nearly every other aspect of the game. Baylor’s defense was lackluster all throughout the season, and that was revealed in their early exit to Creighton. Iowa State stumbled throughout the season, and without a guard as dominant as Tyreese Hunter, their offense was inconsistent. Despite all the obvious issues with the tournament teams, the fact that 70% of the league reached the tournament is an accomplishment in and of itself. 

Big East

Preseason Favorite- Xavier (Preseason #23, overperformed by 5 spots)

Biggest Miss- DePaul (Preseason #151, overperformed by 32 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• UConn (AL) (5 Seed) - Won the National Championship

• Xavier (AL) (3 Seed) - Lost to Texas in the Sweet 16

• Creighton (AL) (6 Seed) - Lost to San Diego State in the Elite Eight

• Marquette (AQ) (2 Seed) - Lost to Michigan State in the Round of 32

• Providence (AL) (11 Seed) - Lost to Kentucky in the Round of 64

1. UConn (Preseason #61, overperformed by 60 spots)

11. Creighton (Preseason #27, overperformed by 16 spots)

15. Marquette (Preseason #63, overperformed by 48 spots)

18. Xavier (Preseason #23, overperformed by 5 spots)

35. Providence (Preseason #55, overperformed by 20 spots)

51. Villanova (Preseason #26, underperformed by 25 spots)

61. Seton Hall (Preseason #58, underperformed by 3 spots)

84. St. John's (Preseason #43, underperformed by 41 spots)

119. DePaul (Preseason #151, overperformed by 32 spots)

125. Butler (Preseason #46, underperformed by 79 spots)

225. Georgetown (Preseason #127, underperformed by 98 spots)

Image Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Uconn was the most dominant team in the country between Thanksgiving and New Years Eve and then from St. Patrick’s Day onward. The combination of their depth, shooting, and stars made them really tough for anyone to match up against. Teams were able to get looks at the rim at will, but converting on these looks was made quite difficult by UConn’s two star bigs. There wasn’t a team who played UConn close for more than 30 minutes. Outside of the National Champs, Marquette, and Villanova were among the biggest surprises. After a surprise tournament appearance in his first year, Shaka Smart didn’t bring in any D1 transfers despite losing Justin Lewis to the NBA. Following beating the brakes off of Baylor in Milwaukee, this team received more national attention and was able to win both the Conference outright and the Big East Tournament. Despite their two seed in the tournament, the Golden Eagles weren’t given the same respect as fellow two seeds UCLA, Texas, or Arizona. This was confirmed in their early exit to Izzo and the Spartans. On the other hand, Villanova was expected to be an issue in the Big East, coming off of a Final Four appearance. Though this team might’ve revealed its full potential down the stretch, winning 7 of their final 11, their early season struggles were too much to overcome. Sean Miller did about as good of a job as he could’ve behind Jack Nunge, Souley Boum, and two months of Zach Freemantle. Creighton could have joined UConn in the Final Four, being in a real position to win their Elite Eight matchup against the Aztecs. Between Thad Mata at Butler, Cooley jumping the ship and joining Georgetown, Pitino at St. John’s and the reemergence of Villanova, the Big East may supplant the Big 12 as the best conference in the country in years to come.

Big Sky

Preseason Favorite- Montana State (Preseason #150, overperformed by 41 spots)

Biggest Miss - Eastern Washington (Preseason #205, overperformed by 109 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Montana State (AQ) (14 Seed) - Lost to Kansas State in the Round of 64

95. Eastern Washington (Preseason #205, overperformed by 110 spots)

108. Montana State (Preseason #150, overperformed by 42 spots)

175. Montana (Preseason #187, overperformed by 12 spots)

188. Northern Arizona (Preseason #194, overperformed by 6 spots)

218. Weber State (Preseason #306, overperformed by 88 spots)

246. Sacramento State (Preseason #252, overperformed by 6 spots)

250. Northern Colorado (Preseason #170, underperformed by 80 spots)

254. Idaho State (Preseason #351, overperformed by 97 spots)

261. Portland State (Preseason #354, overperformed by 93 spots)

298. Idaho (Preseason #342, overperformed by 44 spots)

Image Credit: Northern Colorado Athletics

Eastern Washington was 4-7 on December 13, and was 22-7 two months later on February 23rd, prior to losing their final three games, including their first round matchup in the Big Sky Conference Tournament. Though losing 7 of your first 11 isn’t optimal, there wasn’t a single loss that wasn’t excusable. Five of those seven games were on the road, and the two other losses were neutral site games against Yale and Washington State, two top 80 teams. By late February, the wheels fell off for the Eagles. Injuries piled up, fatigue set in, and the mounting pressure of an 18 game win streak would’ve been too much pressure for most programs. One of those three losses to close out the season was to Montana State, who went on to win the Conference Tournament, inarguably the deserving team had Eastern Washington not been able to run the table in the conference tournament. Behind the first and second place teams, the conference played out as expected for the most part. Northern Colorado was disappointing. Daylen Kountz split ball handling and shot-taking more with Dalton Knecht than was expected in November. While these two propelled the Bears to one of the better offenses in the country, their defense couldn’t stop a traffic cone, with 14 forced turnovers a game being bottom 10 in the country. Though Riley Abercrombie was an impressive transfer, he was no rim protector. Kur Jongkuch was missed for his presence in the middle. There were multiple teams in this conference that could’ve won a tournament game this year, and that should be the norm going forward.

Big South

Preseason Favorite- Longwood (Preseason #112, underperformed by 49 spots)

Biggest Miss- Radford (Preseason #318, overperformed by 150 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• UNC Asheville (AQ) (15 Seed) - Lost to UCLA in the Round of 64

141. UNC Asheville (Preseason #178, overperformed by 37 spots)

161. Longwood (Preseason #112, underperformed by 49 spots)

168. Radford (Preseason #318, overperformed by 150 spots)

201. Campbell (Preseason #309, overperformed by 108 spots)

215. Gardner-Webb (Preseason #181, underperformed by 34 spots)

247. Winthrop (Preseason #192, underperformed by 55 spots)

256. USC Upstate (Preseason #256, spot on)

308. Charleston Southern (Preseason #273, underperformed by 35 spots)

318. High Point (Preseason #292, underperformed by 26 spots)

340. Presbyterian (Preseason #353, overperformed by 13 spots)

Image Credit: USC Upstate Athletics

Longwood brought back the majority of a team that won the Conference Title and Tournament the previous year. Instead of repeating, this was the second place team in the conference all year long. Walyn Napper and Michael Christmas couldn’t replicate Justin Hill’s free throw rate. While they both were good, the Lancers needed to be great to compete with Drew Pember. The Bulldogs were pretty comfortably the top team in the conference, having started off 10-1 including a two-overtime win at Central Florida. Though Pember got the majority of the credit for this team’s success, and rightfully so, this was a well built roster around him. Nick McMullen was the perfect frontcourt partner, a talented rebounder acting more of a bruiser than Pember. Fletcher Abee was another underappreciated part of the run for the Bulldogs, with nearly two-thirds of his shots coming from the three-point line, converting on 40% of them. Radford won 21 games, including one over Longwood, in large part due to DaQuan Smith, who might attempt 500 shots between his high two point and three point volume if he returns for his senior season in Virginia. Charleston Southern went from the bottom 20 offense in the sport to the top 160. Claudell Harris’ improvement best exhibits this team’s improved offense. As a freshman, Harris shot 39% from 2 and 32% from 3 on nearly 300 shots. He shot 57% and 54% respectively on 400 more shots as a sophomore. Getting to the rim at a greater rate, drawing more contact, and working well off ball explain Harris’ improved efficiency, and the motto of constant improvement is what the Bucs need to continue to thrive off of moving forward.

Big Ten

Preseason Favorite- Indiana (Preseason #13, underperformed by 7 spots)

Biggest Miss- Minnesota (Preseason #90, underperformed by 121 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Purdue (AQ) (1 Seed) - Lost to Fairleigh Dickinson in the Round of 64

• Indiana (AL) (4 Seed) - Lost to Miami in the Round of 32

• Michigan State (AL) (7 Seed) - Lost to Kansas State in the Sweet 16

• Penn State (AL) (10 Seed) - Lost to Texas in the Round of 32

• Northwestern (AL) (7 Seed) - Lost to UCLA in the Round of 32

• Maryland (AL) (9 Seed) - Lost to Alabama in the Round of 32

• Illinois (AL) (9 Seed) - Lost to Arkansas in the Round of 64

• Iowa (AL) (8 Seed) - Lost to Auburn in the Round of 64

• Wisconsin (NIT) - Lost to North Texas in the Semifinals

5. Purdue (Preseason #40, overperformed by 35 spots)

20. Indiana (Preseason #13, underperformed by 7 spots)

24. Michigan State (Preseason #49, overperformed by 25 spots)

30. Penn State (Preseason #57, overperformed by 27 spots)

37. Northwestern (Preseason #110, overperformed by 73 spots)

40. Maryland (Preseason #73, overperformed by 33 spots)

44. Illinois (Preseason #17, underperformed by 27 spots)

49. Iowa (Preseason #67, overperformed by 18 spots)

55. Rutgers (Preseason #71, overperformed by 16 spots)

62. Wisconsin (Preseason #84, overperformed by 22 spots)

69. Ohio State (Preseason #44, underperformed by 25 spots)

78. Michigan (Preseason #19, underperformed by 59 spots)

90. Nebraska (Preseason #128, overperformed by 38 spots)

211. Minnesota (Preseason #90, underperformed by 121 spots)

Image Credit: Associated Press

Purdue lost to a 16 seed in the first round for the second time ever. Despite this, they had a very impressive regular season, picking up high level wins both in and out of conference play. Though this is a concerning pattern of losing to double digit seeds in the past three tournaments, all Matt Painter can do is put his team in the position to win, and winning nearly 30 games in back-to-back seasons will do just that. Indiana had a difficult second round matchup, but they’ve only themselves to blame, failing to live up to preseason expectations against their Big Ten schedule. A lack of consistency for the Hoosiers, sweeping Purdue in the Regular Season, but losing to Iowa by 22 at home defined their season. Unexpectedness continued throughout the board, with Northwestern going from being picked to finish second to last in the conference to finishing second in the conference. By the beginning of March, there were four teams who were on the bubble, ping ponging between in and out on a daily basis. Penn State made the Big Ten championship game, and they were comfortably in after losing on Selection Sunday to Purdue. Michigan wasn’t able to take advantage of late season overtime games against Illinois or Indiana which could’ve made things interesting, meaning they accepted an NIT bid. Wisconsin was bordering on either in or out before they lost to Ohio State in the first round of the Big Ten, punching their ticket to the NIT. Rutgers beat Michigan in the Big Ten tournament, and with a win at Purdue, they felt in, even if they had to earn it in Dayton. Come Selection Sunday, Nevada was the surprise team in, at the expense of Rutgers, who joined Michigan and Wisconsin in the NIT. Though all four teams were seemingly on the same tier the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday, Penn State, the only out of this bunch to make the tournament, emerged as a tier, if not several ahead of the other three bubble teams, especially after a win over red hot Texas A&M. 

Big West

Preseason Favorite- UC Santa Barbara (Preseason #98, overperformed by 12 spots)

Biggest Miss- UC Irvine (Preseason #185, overperformed by 80 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• UC Santa Barbara (AQ) (14 Seed) - Lost to Baylor in the Round of 64

86. UC Santa Barbara (Preseason #98, overperformed by 12 spots)

105. UC Irvine (Preseason #185, overperformed by 80 spots)

113. Hawai'i (Preseason #121, overperformed by 8 spots)

131. Cal State Fullerton (Preseason #196, overperformed by 65 spots)

159. UC Riverside (Preseason #180, overperformed by 21 spots)

171. Long Beach State (Preseason #154, underperformed by 17 spots)

177. UC Davis (Preseason #248, overperformed by 71 spots)

235. UC San Diego (Preseason #189, underperformed by 46 spots)

280. Cal State Bakersfield (Preseason #330, overperformed by 50 spots)

291. Cal Poly (Preseason #278, underperformed by 13 spots)

323. Cal State Northridge (Preseason #285, underperformed by 38 spots)

Image Credit: University of Hawaii Athletics

Even with Andre Kelly being more of a rotation piece than refilling the shoes as Sow, he was one of the more important role players in the country for UCSB. He was among the best defensive rebounders in the conference and an important presence around the rim. The real star of the show was Ajay Mitchell. Though the sophomore was expected to be an important starting guard, Mitchell took more shots than anybody on a team full of seniors. Jim Les haad his best team in a half decade, important for the coach who has been struggling since his 25 win 2015 team led by Corey Hawkins. Les began this season beating a Pac 12 team, Cal, a feat he wasn’t able to match in 2015. UC Riverside has become a force to be reckoned with in the Mike Magpayo era. When Zyon Pullin announced that he was coming back for his fourth season, an obvious necessary improvement to his game was his outside shooting. After a bad freshman year, a good sophomore year without fans and falling back down below average his junior year, Pullin was able to improve his shooting above 37%, paired next to Flynn Cameron, who didn’t need to prove himself as a shooter, gave Riverside the second best shooting team in the conference. This is behind only Cal State Fullerton, which won its final six regular season games after starting 6-6 in conference, before losing in the Big West Championship game to the Gauchos. The secret for Fullerton being as talented of a shooting team as they were wasn’t a single star putting up 200 threes, instead five guys who you wouldn’t want to leave alone in the corner. Fullerton shot the ball well, and it was a shot that they liked to take, living and dying by it at times. This was no less relevant than in their loss in the Big West Championship game, as they only made two of their 14 attempts from outside. 

CAA

Preseason Favorite- Towson (Preseason #74, underperformed by 22 spots)

Biggest Miss- Charleston (Preseason #212, overperformed by 144 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Charleston (AQ) (12 Seed) - Lost to San Diego State in the Round of 64

68. Charleston (Preseason #212, overperformed by 144 spots)

92. Hofstra (Preseason #153, overperformed by 61 spots)

96. Towson (Preseason #74, underperformed by 22 spots)

121. UNC Wilmington (Preseason #203, overperformed by 82 spots)

192. Drexel (Preseason #310, overperformed by 118 spots)

243. Delaware (Preseason #197, underperformed by 46 spots)

293. William & Mary (Preseason #303, overperformed by 10 spots)

303. Northeastern (Preseason #231, underperformed by 72 spots)

324. Elon (Preseason #319, underperformed by 5 spots)

327. North Carolina A&T (Preseason #257, underperformed by 70 spots)

338. Stony Brook (Preseason #276, underperformed by 62 spots)

344. Hampton (Preseason #286, underperformed by 58 spots)

348. Monmouth (Preseason #332, underperformed by 16 spots)

Image Credit: NC A&T ATHLETICS

Though there was only one team in the conference that received attention outside of the mid-major level, there were four competitive teams worthy of at least a 14 seed. Towson was the preseason favorite. Sekou Sylla didn’t hit his stride until the CAA tournament for the tigers. Though Cam Holden was talented as a scorer, he struggled as a playmaker, with this team struggling at times in the halfcourt. They turned the ball over too often, and there were too many holes preventing this team from being great in their conference, they were merely good. Hofstra was only one of four teams to beat Charleston this season, with Drexel, clearly the outlier, being the only conference losses on Charleston’s resume. Mate Okros shot 466 field goals in college, 369 of those were three pointers. That 79.2% has to be top 10 in the country for players who attempted 100 or more shots per year. In 2022 he attempted only 11 two pointers, compared to 80 three pointers. He missed his only shot, obviously a three pointer, in Drexel’s win over Charleston. UNC Wilmington was runners up in the CAA Tournament for the second consecutive win, following beating top seeded Hofstra in the semifinals. Similar to Okros, Eric Van Der Heijden attempted 46 three pointers as a sophomore for the Seahawks and just 4 two pointers. Though he didn’t play for a good stretch of those games, Eric went nearly two months, from November 22nd to January 21st without attempting a single two pointer. Charleston got what would come to be realized as the toughest first round matchups for a 12 seed. This was only the sixth time in the last 37 years that a 12 did not win a first round game against a 5, and counting on the Cougars to beat the eventual runners up would’ve been a tough ask. Though if Charleston was able to beat San Diego State, they likely would’ve made the Sweet 16, with 13 seeded Furman standing in their way. Asking Charleston to do to Alabama what San Diego State was able to would not have been easy. Though the transitive property is usually ineffective, especially in the tournament, Charleston played the team very closely on the road that it took Alabama four overtimes to beat- North Carolina.

Conference USA

Preseason Favorite- UAB (Preseason #50, overperformed by 7 spots)

Biggest Miss- Charlotte (Preseason #250, overperformed by 118 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Florida Atlantic (AQ) (12 Seed) - Lost to San Diego State in the Final Four

• North Texas (NIT) - Won the NIT

• UAB (NIT) - Lost to North Texas in the Championship

• Charlotte (CBI) - Won the CBI

12. Florida Atlantic (Preseason #103, overperformed by 91 spots)

32. North Texas (Preseason #62, overperformed by 30 spots)

43. UAB (Preseason #50, overperformed by 7 spots)

132. Charlotte (Preseason #250, overperformed by 118 spots)

172. Middle Tennessee (Preseason #115, underperformed by 57 spots)

189. Western Kentucky (Preseason #83, underperformed by 106 spots)

202. UTEP (Preseason #146, underperformed by 56 spots)

213. Louisiana Tech (Preseason #131, underperformed by 82 spots)

216. Rice (Preseason #158, underperformed by 58 spots)

219. FIU (Preseason #287, overperformed by 68 spots)

236. UTSA (Preseason #311, overperformed by 75 spots)

Image Credit: Rice University Athletics

Conference USA only qualified a single team to the tournament in what has been a borderline multibid league the past few years. Even with Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech having down years, this was undoubtedly the best year in overall conference accomplishments since the Coach Cal days at Memphis. The Florida Atlantic story has been told and told again, but also impressively should be the accomplishments of North Texas and UAB, who met in the NIT Championship game, after beating high level teams like Wisconsin, Oklahoma State and Vanderbilt along the way. Charlotte, expected to be a bystander in conference, swept Western Kentucky and ended any aspirations of North Texas towards an at-large bid with a late February win. This was in large part due to how well of a shooting team the 49ers were, with five high level shooters on the team, including Montre' Gipson who nearly made half his threes on high volume. Western Kentucky had plenty of talent throughout its roster, which was never an issue for Rick Stansbury. Two separate five game losing streaks made an aspirations of Rick’s first tournament in Bowling Green out of question Emmanuel Akot, who has been in college since 2017 had his worst shooting season since before the pandemic. Despite having the tallest player in the country in Jamarion Sharp, as a whole, they shot poorly within the arc. Sharp’s rebounding ability was a curse and a blessing, with him reaming around the dunker’s spot, there wasn’t much of a driving lane, and while this set up many alley oops between he and Dayvion McKnight off of the center defender helping on the drive, this could be taken away by staying home and fouling Sharp, a horrid free throw shooter, if he got the ball. The problems between Western Kentucky and UTSA were quite similar, with a single 11 game losing streak dismantling their season, as well as issues scoring efficiently inside. Jacob Germany is one of the more interesting big men in the conference. Germany plays a bit like Drew Timme, favoring high post footwork and dribble moves over backing down his guy and getting within a foot in the basket. Timme, though, is much more able to throw his butt around in the post and back down his man, while Germany struggled to get within three feet of the basket. Germany shot likely more hook shots than anyone in the conference, which is a less efficient shot than a layup. This hurt UTSA’s efficiency on the offensive end, though it did make them an intriguing watch. 

Horizon

Preseason Favorite- Northern Kentucky (Preseason #157, overperformed by 112 spots)

Biggest Miss- Milwaukee (Preseason #334, overperformed by 150 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Northern Kentucky (AQ) (16 Seed) - Lost to Houston in the Round of 64

145. Northern Kentucky (Preseason #157, overperformed by 112 spots)

150. Youngstown State (Preseason #235, overperformed by 85 spots)

180. Cleveland State (Preseason #288, overperformed by 108 spots)

184. Milwaukee (Preseason #334, overperformed by 150 spots)

203. Wright State (Preseason #228, overperformed by 25 spots)

223. Purdue Fort Wayne (Preseason #171, underperformed by 52 spots)

232. Detroit Mercy (Preseason #186, underperformed by 46 spots)

239. Robert Morris (Preseason #268, overperformed by 29 spots)

284. Oakland (Preseason #209, underperformed by 75 spots)

358. IUPUI (Preseason #362, overperformed by 4 spots)

362. Green Bay (Preseason #352, underperformed by 10 spots)

Image Credit: Robert Morris University Athletics

Milwaukee was picked 9th in the Horizon in the preseason, and finished in second place. This has come to be known as the Bart Lundy. Milwaukee won 14 games in their conference, they had an average margin of victory of 6.2 points. Northern Kentucky, the eventual Conference Tournament victor, tied Milwaukee with 14 wins, and had an average MOV of 12 points. When your team is populated by Green Bay and IUPUI, two of the 10 worst teams in the country, these teams should be beaten by 30 points. Northern Kentucky beat IUPUI by 13 and 39. Milwaukee won by 13 and 3. Milwaukee beat Green Bay on the road by 14, but lost in OT to the 3-29 team, while Northern Kentucky won by an average of 18.5 points. Though Milwaukee might’ve had paper tiger status, BJ Freeman is the real deal, putting up the 5th most points in program history in Milwaukee’s first round game against Stetson. Jerrod Calhoun’s Penguins had a top 40 offense in the country, in large part due to Dwayne Cohill, who shot 50-40-85. This is paired with being tasked as the lead ball handler. Being able to shoot 43% from outside on over 100 shots while the ball is in your hands more often than any other player means that you’re not posting up in the corner and receiving the pass off of drives, Cohill shot a good amount of his threes off of his own looks. Bryce McBride was an important secondary ball handler who really found his stride after slotting into the starting lineup in the beginning of January. Youngstown State lost in the Conference Tournament to the aforementioned overpowering Northern Kentucky Norse, with the Penguins being more likely to be known as the team that ended Antoine Davis’ career and prevented him from breaking Pistol Pete’s scoring record, and the potent offense that they were. Davis was not able to receive the CBI invite that Milwaukee did, and though expected him to put up 43 like BJ Freeman did in a game wouldn’t have been necessary, if he could’ve found four points in his country-leading 34.9% of possessions used in his fifth year in college, he could’ve been mentioned in the same sentence with Dwayne Cohill in offensive effectiveness. 

Ivy

Preseason Favorite- Pennsylvania (Preseason #156, overperformed by 22 spots)

Biggest Miss- Cornell (Preseason #251, overperformed by 122 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Princeton (AQ) (15 Seed) - Lost to Creighton in the Sweet 16

73. Princeton (Preseason #183, overperformed by 110 spots)

79. Yale (Preseason #190, overperformed by 111 spots)

129. Cornell (Preseason #251, overperformed by 122 spots)

134. Pennsylvania (Preseason #156, overperformed by 22 spots)

142. Brown (Preseason #193, overperformed by 51 spots)

185. Harvard (Preseason #173, underperformed by 12 spots)

266. Dartmouth (Preseason #280, overperformed by 14 spots)

341. Columbia (Preseason #269, underperformed by 72 spots)

Image Credit: Dartmouth Credit Athletics

The Ivy has emerged as a top 10 conference in the country just two years after not having a season in 2021. This meant transfers galore, despite this, the conference had two top 100 teams. The team that made the second weekend and beat a two seed is still arguably not the best team in the country. This is even with Harvard having overall a disappointing season and dropping six of their final eight, finishing outside of the top four of the conference. Cornell started off their season very impressively at 12-3, their only losses coming to ACC teams, including a mere two point loss in Coral Gables. Yale seemed like the team to beat through the majority of the season, their combination of depth, offensive rebounding, perimeter defense and shooting made them an expected tough first round out. They beat eventual tournament team Vermont by 30. They beat Princeton, the two seed twice, by an average of 16 points. Despite all these signs, Princeton won the Ivy league championship game, where they never trailed by more than two points. Princeton might be second only to Utah State in the country in white guys who seem like they can shoot the ball well. Blake Peters is a great example of this, who made three triples against Arizona in their first round and was 5 for 8 against Missouri in a second round game that was never very close. If the Missouri game was about Princeton’s offense, the Arizona game was about defense and pace. Arizona plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, but were five possessions below their average, in a game that Princeton was able to keep in the 50s. A Pac 12 team that beat Creighton, San Diego State, and UCLA (twice) turned the ball over more than an Ivy league team that lost to Delaware. If Princeton was able to do this as what seemed clear to be the second best team in the league, Yale might’ve made the Final Four.

MAAC

Preseason Favorite- Iona (Preseason #125, overperformed by 48 spots)

Biggest Miss- Manhattan (Preseason #152, underperformed by 162 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Iona (AQ) (13 Seed) - Lost to UConn in the Round of 64

77. Iona (Preseason #125, overperformed by 48 spots)

186. Rider (Preseason #148, underperformed by 38 spots)

200. Quinnipiac (Preseason #160, underperformed by 40 spots)

214. Siena (Preseason #169, underperformed by 45 spots)

233. Niagara (Preseason #195, underperformed by 38 spots)

244. Canisius (Preseason #191, underperformed by 53 spots)

258. Fairfield (Preseason #162, underperformed by 96 spots)

265. Mount St. Mary's (Preseason #188, underperformed by 77 spots)

271. Marist (Preseason #291, overperformed by 20 spots)

294. Saint Peter's (Preseason #283, underperformed by 11 spots)

314. Manhattan (Preseason #152, underperformed by 162 spots)

Image Credit: Fairfield University Athletics

Walter Clayton only missed five three throws throughout the 2023 season, and he went up until February 5th with only having missed one on the season. Despite February being a poor shooting month for Walter, going 26/30 from the line, Iona didn’t drop a game. In fact, January 28th to the tournament, the Gaels didn’t lose a single game, and won all but two by double digits. One of these double digit wins, by 33 in fact, was to Siena, a team that had beaten Iona on the 27th of January. Walter Clayton didn’t attempt a single free throw in the loss. This win spelled the end of the season for Siena, who went on to lose 8 of their next 11 games, as they were 14-7 before this stretch, and being in good position to win the conference. Manhattan let go of Steve Masiello right before the start of the season, explaining their disappointing outcome compared to expectations. This was all over a contract extension that was not received. This led to Jose Perez, who had as good a chance as anybody to be the conference’s player of the year, to not play a single minute for the Jaspers, who were expected to contend with Iona atop the conference, instead finishing at the bottom of the conference, which could’ve been even worse, having fallen to 6-13 overall on that recurring date of January 27th before winning more games than they lost to close out the season. On this same date, Rider went on an extended scoring run of 48-12 over 23 minutes of gametime to top Marist. This was the second road win Rider had picked up in the previous two weeks, with the first coming at Iona, what was expected to be among their toughest conference games of the year. On February 10th, Rider was sitting pretty at 11-3 in conference, with a good chance of clinching the top seed in the conference, before losing four of their final six before losing to Saint Peter’s in the first round, the second straight year the Peacocks had pulled an upset in the Wednesday of the MAAC tournament. Despite this impressive win, Saint Peter’s had among the worst offense in the sport, not being able to shoot the ball well from anymore, nor take care of the ball when they had it. Marist beat Saint Peter’s in the semifinals, in a game where they never trailed, nor gave up a 48-12 run over 23 minutes of gametime. Top seeded Iona fell to the eventual champions in UConn in the first round following beating Marist in the MAAC Conference Championship, with Walter Clayton making all four of his free throws. 

MAC

Preseason Favorite- Toledo (Preseason #77, underperformed by 23 spots)

Biggest Miss- Eastern Michigan (Preseason #126, underperformed by 204 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Kent State (AQ) (13 Seed) - Lost to Indiana in the Round of 64

74. Kent State (Preseason #109, overperformed by 35 spots)

88. Akron (Preseason #119, overperformed by 31 spots)

100. Toledo (Preseason #77, underperformed by 23 spots)

130. Ball State (Preseason #139, overperformed by 9 spots)

133. Ohio (Preseason #132, underperformed by 1 spots)

162. Buffalo (Preseason #224, overperformed by 62 spots)

259. Northern Illinois (Preseason #335, overperformed by 76 spots)

267. Bowling Green (Preseason #314, overperformed by 47 spots)

277. Miami (OH) (Preseason #149, underperformed by 128 spots)

319. Western Michigan (Preseason #312, underperformed by 7 spots)

330. Eastern Michigan (Preseason #126, underperformed by 204 spots)

345. Central Michigan (Preseason #293, underperformed by 52 spots)

Image Credit: Miami University RedHawks Athletics

There are very few teams who end their season on a win in college basketball. Between losing in the tournament or a conference tournament, the majority of teams that end their season with a win do so surrounded by confetti. Western Michigan beat Central Michigan on March 3rd. This was their 8th win of the season and only their second since mid January. This was the only MAC team to end their season with a win, having not qualified for the conference tournament. Kent State lost to Indiana in the first round of the tournament. Toledo lost to Michigan in the first round of the NIT. Both of these teams were continuously the best in the conference throughout the year, with them both being in a tier of their own, and the expectation being that either of them would represent the conference in the tournament. Despite the well earned expectations, neither team ended their season with a win. Kent State ended their season with just seven losses, with three of these being to high level teams. Charleston beat Kent State in Charleston by two points, in a game where Kent State led for the majority of it. Had Kent State won this game, they likely would’ve been the team ranked in January instead of Charleston. Their very next game, Houston was unable to break 50 at home. Kent State, unfortunately was unable to break 45, but they played the Cougars to within five points on the road. With four minutes to go, Kent State led Gonzaga by 4, only for Gonzaga to go on to win by a misleading 7 points. Despite losses to teams that were supposed to win, and playing these teams much closer than might’ve been expected, there is very little celebration in losing. Emoni Bates likely isn’t celebrating nearly scoring 20 points a game for his 8 win squad. Between Tyson Acuff, Noah Farrakhan and Bates, Eastern Michigan had real star power, between these three players, there is not a whole lot of shooting to be found, nor is there a single player outside of this trio who shot more than 50 threes in 2023. This was also the worst two point defense in the country. Poor shooting and poor defense, that's not a combination that will lead to you ending your season with a win.

MEAC

Preseason Favorite- Norfolk State (Preseason #95, underperformed by 112 spots)

Biggest Miss- Norfolk State (Preseason #95, underperformed by 112 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Howard (AQ) (16 Seed) - Lost to Kansas in the Round of 64

194. Howard (Preseason #211, overperformed by 17 spots)

207. Norfolk State (Preseason #95, underperformed by 112 spots)

212. North Carolina Central (Preseason #230, overperformed by 18 spots)

257. Maryland Eastern Shore (Preseason #289, overperformed by 32 spots)

311. Morgan State (Preseason #316, overperformed by 5 spots)

346. Coppin State (Preseason #304, underperformed by 42 spots)

352. South Carolina State (Preseason #341, underperformed by 11 spots)

354. Delaware State (Preseason #347, underperformed by 7 spots)

Image Credit: North Carolina Central University Athletics

A 17 point loss was celebrated early in the season, that being to Baylor by Norfolk State. Though Baylor led by as many as 21, and Norfolk State was never close in the second half, the team that I had in the top 100 was seen as a 16 seed to watch. This was followed up by a loss to UCLA, three days later. Though a loss was expected, the 30 point margin was disappointing, and the hope was Norfolk State to be able to keep it closer than a top 10 team paying for a buy game might expect. By the end of the month, the top 100 status for a MEAC team was seen as nothing more than a shot in the dark for a good team that returned a lot of their talent from the previous season, as Houston beat the Spartans by nearly 50. By the end of the season, Norfolk State didn’t even win their conference, that title going to Howard, who eventually won the conference tournament. Maryland Eastern Shore had their best season in the Jason Crafton era, winning 9 conference games and 18 games overall, only the second time they’ve reached that mark this millennium. Success has been built on the defensive end, and while there are many talented defenders, specifically in the backcourt, the sheer depth of the roster, the ability to go 9 deep consistently really makes a difference. Coppin State struggled all throughout the season on the boards, with their two tallest guys not playing a whole lot consistently, instead opting to start three guards and two forwards. The two near seven footers on the roster are Daniel Titus and Luka Tekavcic. Titus comes by way of Australia, and Tekavcic is Slovenian. The image of a Slovenian at an HBCU, especially when that Slovenian is 6'11" and the tallest guy on the team is undoubtedly unique. 

MVC

Preseason Favorite- Drake (Preseason #38, underperformed by 15 spots)

Biggest Miss- Valparaiso (Preseason #179, underperformed by 116 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Drake (AQ) (12 Seed) - Lost to Miami in the Round of 64

53. Drake (Preseason #38, underperformed by 15 spots)

85. Bradley (Preseason #129, overperformed by 44 spots)

102. Indiana State (Preseason #155, overperformed by 53 spots)

114. Southern Illinois (Preseason #99, underperformed by 15 spots)

126. Belmont (Preseason #172, overperformed by 46 spots)

158. Missouri State (Preseason #184, overperformed by 26 spots)

164. Murray State (Preseason #206, overperformed by 42 spots)

196. Northern Iowa (Preseason #262, overperformed by 66 spots)

287. UIC (Preseason #294, overperformed by 7 spots)

295. Valparaiso (Preseason #179, underperformed by 116 spots)

304. Illinois State (Preseason #271, underperformed by 33 spots)

350. Evansville (Preseason #346, underperformed by 4 spots)

Image Credit: UIC Athletics

In the preseason, Tucker Devries shooting 200 threes as a freshman was gawked at. He attempted 30 more as a sophomore, shooting 36% this year compared to 34% as a freshman. There was only a single game in 2023 that Tucker played in where he didn’t make a three, he was 0/8 on December 7th against Omaha. Despite his impressive track record as a shooter, he was only able to go 1/11 against eventual Final Four team Miami. Had he gone 3/11, the 7 point loss could’ve been surmounted with either Indiana or Drake in the second weekend against Houston. The coach’s kid was only second in the conference in percentage of team’s shots taken behind Lance Jones, who has no known relation to Bryan Mullins. Lance shot 10 more threes than Tucker at a 10% worse efficiency clip. Despite Jones and Marcus Domask being at the line over 100 times a piece, the rest of their roster didn’t see the ball nearly half the time, with 49% of the team’s 1,655 field goals coming from either of those two guards. Foster Wonders, a freshman for the Salukis was second in the conference in field goals attempted without a free throw made.  The polarization of this usage between Jones and Domask led to a winning record, with Southern Illinois nearly going two months between December and February only dropping a single game, including a win over Drake, a game where Foster Wonders didn’t play and Domask and Jones combined for 26 of their teams 51 shots. Foster Jones was only behind James Graham in field goals attempted without a free throw attempt, who attempted 67 field goals, which was 13 more than Jones. Graham has shot two free throws and 73 field goals in his three year career, the first two coming in Maryland, and the most recent being at Missouri State. Graham’s free throws came at the very start of his sophomore year in College Park, meaning it’ll be likely more than two years since he last stepped on the free throw line in game action the next time he sees the court. 

Mountain West

Preseason Favorite- San Diego State (Preseason #12, overperformed by 4 spots)

Biggest Miss- Nevada (Preseason #200, overperformed by 162 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• San Diego State (AQ) (5 Seed) - Lost to UConn in the National Championship

• Boise State (AL) (10 Seed) - Lost to Northwestern in the Round of 64

• Utah State (AL) (9 Seed) - Lost to Missouri in the Round of 64

• Nevada (AL) (11 Seed) - Lost to Arizona State in the First Four

8. San Diego State (Preseason #12, overperformed by 4 spots)

31. Boise State (Preseason #64, overperformed by 33 spots)

33. Utah State (Preseason #130, overperformed by 97 spots)

38. Nevada (Preseason #200, overperformed by 162 spots)

82. New Mexico (Preseason #124, overperformed by 42 spots)

110. UNLV (Preseason #117, overperformed by 7 spots)

118. San Jose State (Preseason #241, overperformed by 123 spots)

122. Colorado State (Preseason #82, underperformed by 40 spots)

137. Fresno State (Preseason #137, Spot on)

143. Wyoming (Preseason #30, underperformed by 113 spots)

152. Air Force (Preseason #215, overperformed by 63 spots)

Image Credit: Las Vegas Sun Newspaper

Earning four bids to the tournament is very impressive, but it seemed early on, with three of the four of those teams gone by the first Thursday that this would be all too similar to the previous years, a conference who plays solid enough in the non-con, has impressive numbers throughout conference play, gets several moderately seeded teams in, but then fails to show up come Tournament Time. San Diego State reversed that belief, and though they played two double digit teams to make the second weekend, beating the overall number one seed proved both their conference and their team as fully able, winning their Elite Eight game and making the National Championship. As for the rest of the conference, Boise State, expected to be close if not in the field in the preseason, wasn't a big surprise. Utah State shooting the ball the way they did shouldn’t have been one either, but the fact that it led to them being comfortably in the field subverted preseason expectations. The same can be said for Colorado State and Wyoming, in terms of not fulfilling preseason expectations. Colorado State wasn’t as close to the bubble as Utah State, but they were in the preseason NIT Range, disappointing beyond that. Wyoming on the other hand was among the worst teams in the conference following waltzing through it the previous season. This was in large part to the injury of Graham Ike, and a lack of consistency all throughout the roster, between Maldonado being unable to carry the load himself, and the three Pac 12 players exiting the program in the middle of the season. Despite this, the conference as a whole was stronger in the middle than in most years, specifically with San Jose State not being the bottom feeder it normally is. New Mexico and UNLV both started off strong, but despite missing the tournament, they provided good opportunities for the four teams who earned a bid. 

NEC

Preseason Favorite- Merrimack (Preseason #201, underperformed by 75 spots)

Biggest Miss- St. Francis (PA) (Preseason #218, underperformed by 124 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Fairleigh Dickinson (AQ) (16 Seed) - Lost to Florida Atlantic in the Round of 32

224. Fairleigh Dickinson (Preseason #277, overperformed by 53 spots)

276. Merrimack (Preseason #201, underperformed by 75 spots)

315. Wagner (Preseason #295, underperformed by 20 spots)

325. Stonehill (Preseason #340, overperformed by 15 spots)

333. Central Connecticut (Preseason #233, underperformed by 100 spots)

336. Sacred Heart (Preseason #222, underperformed by 114 spots)

342. St. Francis (PA) (Preseason #218, underperformed by 124 spots)

353. St. Francis Brooklyn (Preseason #263, underperformed by 90 spots)

363. Long Island (Preseason #361, underperformed by 2 spots)

Image Credit: Stonehill College

Though their win against Purdue makes it difficult to not have them in the top spot, Fairleigh Dickinson, even after the conference tournament, was pretty obviously not the best team. Merrimack will begin the next season still owning the nation’s longest win streak, nearly double that of the runner-up, in the National Champ’s six. Merrimack was 2-13 on New Year’s Eve. They only had a single win against a D1 team outside of their conference, Hartford, which has one foot out of the D1 door as they transition. Merrimack won the NEC by two games over FDU. They won the conference tournament, but this wasn’t a good team outside of the context of playing in the worst conference in the country. Fairleigh Dickinson lost to this team in the NEC Championship game, making the upset over a one-seed even more unbelievable. Wagner had been among the best teams in the conference recently, having won 13 games in back to back seasons. Losing their core led by Alex Morales and their coach Bashir Mason meant they took a step back, and while they were in the top half of the conference, they were a tier behind what we’ve come to expect. LIU had among the worst teams in the country, with a single D1 win to their name, and like Merrimack, that success came in conference play over Sacred Heart. This was definitely a low for the Pioneers who otherwise had a solid season. In fact, Sacred Heart knocked out the aforementioned dangerous Wagner team in the NEC tournament. This was in a game where Nico Galette was one of four Pioneers in double digits. Though Galette has proven his ability to get his, Sacred Heart’s best performances came when the scoring came from all over. In their win against Fairleigh Dickinson on the road, five players scored in double digits. Sacred Heart, a team that lost to Long Island, beat Fairleigh Dickinson not once, but twice.

OVC

Preseason Favorite- Morehead State (Preseason #202, underperformed by 15 spots)

Biggest Miss - Tennessee Tech (Preseason #356, overperformed by 66 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Southeast Missouri State (AQ) (16 Seed) - Lost to Texas A&M Corpus Christi in the First Four

217. Morehead State (Preseason #202, underperformed by 15 spots)

230. Southeast Missouri State (Preseason #267, overperformed by 37 spots)

270. SIU Edwardsville (Preseason #221, underperformed by 49 spots)

274. UT Martin (Preseason #225, underperformed by 49 spots)

281. Tennessee State (Preseason #234, underperformed by 47 spots)

290. Tennessee Tech (Preseason #356, overperformed by 66 spots)

299. Southern Indiana (Preseason #301, overperformed by 2 spots)

329. Little Rock (Preseason #274, underperformed by 55 spots)

332. Lindenwood (Preseason #363, overperformed by 31 spots)

351. Eastern Illinois (Preseason #322, underperformed by 29 spots)

Image Credit: University of Southern Indiana Athletics

Lindenwood was picked to be the worst team in the country the previous year, and ended up beating a future tournament team. Their overperformance was in large part due to how well they shot the ball. Brandon Trimble, Chris Childs and Keenon Cole all shot 35% or better on over 70 threes throughout the season, winning them some games that they wouldn’t have otherwise. In fact, Lindenwood was only four spots behind the eventual champs in UConn. Chris Childs and Cam Burrell were both effective transfers, which supplanted a poor D2 roster from the previous year. Despite this, Lindenwood was tied for second to last in the 11th worst conference in the country, one that was reeling after the loss of their two best programs in Belmont and Murray State leaving to the MVC, as well as CBI runners up Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay joining the ASUN. Morehead State was the most obvious next team up behind those four, even without Johni Broome. This seemed to be the case through March, as they won the conference title, entering the OVC Conference Tournament with a 14-4 conference record. This all came crashing down to a SEMO team which had previously lost to Lindenwood and entered the OVC tournament having lost 5 of their previous 7 games, as well as sporting an 8 game losing streak between November and December. Streakiness was the theme for the Redhawks, who rode that into a tournament appearance and first four matchup that they would go on to lose. In terms of what went wrong for the Eagles, they had a 10 point lead late in the first half of the OVC semifinals, before it started to slowly slip away. Late in the second half, Morehead State stopped scoring points. Mark Freeman put the Eagles up 6 points with nearly 9 minutes left in the game. Mark Freeman, nor the Eagles scored again until the 2 minute mark at this point in time, they went from having a 6 point cushion to being down 6. Despite Morehead State having the more impressive season, this six minute stretch ended their season and hopes of reaching the tournament. 

Pac 12

Preseason Favorite- UCLA (Preseason #15, overperformed by 8 spots)

Biggest Miss- California (Preseason #198, underperformed by 65 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• UCLA (AL) (2 Seed) - Lost to Gonzaga in the Sweet 16

• Arizona (AQ) (2 Seed) - Lost to Princeton in the Round of 64

• Arizona State (AL) (11 Seed) - Lost to TCU in the Round of 64

• USC (AL) (10 Seed) - Lost to Michigan State in the Round of 64

7. UCLA (Preseason #15, overperformed by 8 spots)

17. Arizona (Preseason #18, overperformed by 1 spots)

28. Arizona State (Preseason #48, overperformed by 20 spots)

47. USC (Preseason #32, underperformed by 15 spots)

52. Oregon (Preseason #20, underperformed by 32 spots)

54. Utah (Preseason #111, overperformed by 57 spots)

63. Colorado (Preseason #70, overperformed by 7 spots)

70. Washington State (Preseason #60, underperformed by 10 spots)

72. Stanford (Preseason #31, underperformed by 41 spots)

106. Washington (Preseason #56, underperformed by 50 spots)

240. Oregon State (Preseason #279, overperformed by 39 spots)

263. California (Preseason #198, underperformed by 65 spots)

Image Credit: The San Diego Union- Tribune

If the top two teams in the conference were a tier or two above what they were projected as coming into the season, three through 10 were a step below. Through mid-March, the Conference of Champions was struggling to earn bids beyond these top two teams, with Arizona playing in Dayton and USC being a double-digit seed. The mid-section of this conference all fell within the same range, with Oregon to Stanford all being interchangeable within the 45-80 range. Even if UCLA could’ve hidden the Jaylen Clark injury, and ridden on the coattails of a strong first 25 minutes to beat Gonzaga, there wasn’t a team in the Elite Eight that would’ve stood a chance against UConn, including these Bruins. Though a two-seed falling to a 15 is never expected, it had to have been Arizona, with their inconsistency against inferior opponents throughout the year. While playing at the pace they do allows them to score in buckets, it grants their opponents more opportunities to do so as well. With losses to Utah, Washington State, and Stanford, throwing another one into that Q2 range wasn’t surprising. Oregon had another disappointing season after being seen as a comfortable tournament team in November. Their offense has not been as potent as in seasons past. They went from an elite three-point shooting team in 2021 to a mediocre one the previous year, to a bad one this season. In this timespan, Will Richardson shot 40% in 2021, 39% in 2022, and 33% on his highest volume this season. Richardson was getting easier shots next to Duarte or De'Vion Harmon, but when the rest of his team isn’t a threat from outside, he isn’t respected to the same extent. With Tad Boyle expected to have a more talented team next season than this, Craig Smith continuing his climb through the conference, and Oregon State and California hopefully getting out of the basement, there should be better balance throughout this conference than this season. There were no top 30 teams this year that weren’t in the top 10. No teams were close to a 6 or 7 seed. Pac 12 teams were either title contenders, in the NIT Range or completely obsolete.

Patriot

Preseason Favorite- Colgate (Preseason #147, overperformed by 24 spots)

Biggest Miss- Lehigh (Preseason #220, underperformed by 81 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Colgate (AQ) (15 Seed) - Lost to Texas in the Round of 64

123. Colgate (Preseason #147, overperformed by 24 spots)

176. Navy (Preseason #232, overperformed by 56 spots)

248. Boston University (Preseason #229, underperformed by 19 spots)

268. Lafayette (Preseason #323, overperformed by 55 spots)

278. American (Preseason #264, underperformed by 14 spots)

283. Army (Preseason #207, underperformed by 76 spots)

301. Lehigh (Preseason #220, underperformed by 81 spots)

309. Bucknell (Preseason #272, underperformed by 37 spots)

320. Loyola Maryland (Preseason #296, underperformed by 24 spots)

343. Holy Cross (Preseason #320, underperformed by 23 spots)

Image Credit: Bucknell Athletics

The last five years have been all of the same for Colgate. They’ll waltz through the regular season, averaging 2.6 conference losses since 2019, with only one this past season. People filling out brackets will see the Raiders as a trendy upset, with how well they shoot the ball- they’ve been top three in the country each of the last three seasons in 3-point percentage, but they’ll come up short in the tournament. This was the shortest they’ve come up in that stretch, losing by 20 to Texas, in a game where they shot only 20% from outside. This feels very similar to those Chris Jans and Marvin Menzies New Mexico State programs of the last 15 years. The Aggies made 8 tournaments in an 11-year span, losing in the first round every time before Jans was finally able to beat UConn in the first round in 2022. Though it can be exhausting for a coach, a team, and a program to continuously come up short, putting yourself in a position to win, both your conference and potential games in the tournament is the best you can do as a coach. Though they haven’t been successful in doing so to point, Navy has been the biggest competition to the Raider’s conference supremacy, finishing the regular season having won 10 of their final 12 games, including a 4-point loss to Colgate, one in which they had a 20 point deficit with 14 minutes remaining, nearly able to pull the shocking comeback and upset. Lehigh was right behind Colgate in their shooting abilities the previous year, finishing the 2022 season 9th in the country, having made more than 38% of their looks from outside. They fell to fifth in the conference in this metric the past season, despite Evan Taylor shooting over 40% from outside the previous two seasons on more than 100 attempts a year. Despite playing at an average pace on the offensive end, Boston University held their opponents to the 11th-slowest average possession length on the defensive end. Joe Jones remains enigmatic as the head coach of the Terriers. Two decades ago, in his first year as a head coach at the D1 level, Columbia had the 4th best assist percentage in the country. Over the past three years, his Terriers have been bottom 20 in the country in that metric. Walter Whyte, who had played for the team since 2017, ended his college basketball career with 130 assists, 244 turnovers, and 1,352 shots attempted. 

SEC

Preseason Favorite- Arkansas (Preseason #3, underperformed by 16 spots)

Biggest Miss- South Carolina (Preseason #65, underperformed by 155 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Alabama (AQ) (1 Seed) - Lost to San Diego State in the Sweet 16

• Arkansas (AL) (8 Seed) - Lost to UConn in the Sweet 16

• Tennessee (AL) (4 Seed) - Lost to Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16

• Texas A&M (AL) (7 Seed) - Lost to Penn State in the Round of 64

• Kentucky (AL) (6 Seed) - Lost to Kansas State in the Round of 32

• Missouri (AL) (7 Seed) - Lost to Princeton in the Round of 32

• Mississippi State (AL) (7 Seed) - Lost to Pitt in the First Four

• Auburn (AL) (9 Seed) - Lost to Houston in the Round of 32

3. Alabama (Preseason #36, overperformed by 33 spots)

19. Arkansas (Preseason #3, underperformed by 16 spots)

23. Tennessee (Preseason #6, underperformed by 17 spots)

25. Texas A&M (Preseason #9, underperformed by 16 spots)

29. Kentucky (Preseason #8, underperformed by 21 spots)

41. Missouri (Preseason #53, overperformed by 12 spots)

42. Mississippi State (Preseason #51, overperformed by 9 spots)

50. Auburn (Preseason #24, underperformed by 26 spots)

64. Vanderbilt (Preseason #101, overperformed by 37 spots)

75. Florida (Preseason #25, underperformed by 50 spots)

127. Mississippi (Preseason #75, underperformed by 52 spots)

163. Georgia (Preseason #87, underperformed by 76 spots)

181. LSU (Preseason #35, underperformed by 146 spots)

220. South Carolina (Preseason #65, underperformed by 155 spots)

Image Credit: Missouri Athletics

If UConn was the most dominant team up until New Year’s Eve, Alabama carried that torch for the next several months. Alabama was the dominant SEC force that Arkansas was expected to be, with the Hogs having injury issues that didn’t allow them to regain their full strength after Maui. Trevon Brazile and Nick Smith were injured for the majority of the season, which led to the preseason #3 team being in doubt of even making the tournament through January. Tennessee, despite being high in the metrics and the polls the majority of the season, never played consistently enough to be seen as the high-level team which beat Alabama, Kansas, and Texas. Their season could best be summarized in their final two games. The Vols beat one of the hottest teams in the country, Duke, who was on a 10-game winning streak, fresh off of an ACC Tournament title and a 23 point win over a 30 win Oral Roberts team, put up their lowest point total of the season against Tennessee, and lost by 13 in a game that wasn’t close. Tennessee’s Sweet 16 team was against a 9 seed from a single bid league that Tennessee struggled to crack 50 in. Texas A&M and Kentucky both went from being horribly misplaced in the preseason top 10 to solid SEC teams, with Texas A&M specifically playing like a top 10 team for the final three months of the season. The new coaches, for the most part, fared well. Dennis Gates and Chris Jans both earned a bid for Missouri and Mississippi State respectively despite being picked in the bottom half of the conference initially. Though South Carolina, LSU, Florida and Georgia weren’t close to the tournament, LSU and Florida were among the only two in that group which were expected to be competitive. A new coach tax should have been assessed on those teams, and although they both had the talent of tournament teams, getting acquainted, especially in a conference as deep as the SEC was this year, takes time.

Southern

Preseason Favorite- Samford (Preseason #144, overperformed by 20 spots)

Biggest Miss- Western Carolina (Preseason #324, overperformed by 87 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Furman (AQ) (13 Seed) - Lost to San Diego State in the Round of 32

103. Furman (Preseason #157, overperformed by 54 spots)

124. Samford (Preseason #144, overperformed by 20 spots)

135. UNC Greensboro (Preseason #165, overperformed by 30 spots)

160. Chattanooga (Preseason #177, overperformed by 17 spots)

237. Western Carolina (Preseason #324, overperformed by 87 spots)

245. Wofford (Preseason #182, underperformed by 63 spots)

251. Mercer (Preseason #281, overperformed by 30 spots)

255. East Tennessee State (Preseason #249, underperformed by 6 spots)

316. The Citadel (Preseason #326, overperformed by 10 spots)

355. VMI (Preseason #337, underperformed by 18 spots)

Image Credit: Mercer University Athletics

The injury of Jake Stephens shaped this conference. After going down on January 21st, Chattanooga went 4-6, finishing with the 7 seed. They had the best player in the conference, but they would need to win four consecutive games on four consecutive days for a chance for said player to make the tournament for the first time, and back-to-back tournament appearances. Though they won their first three games in the Conference Tournament, they fell to the conference victors in the Paladins. Though Chattanooga was only 3-5 at the time of Stephen’s injury, Wofford and ETSU were tied for the fifth seed with just one more conference win than the Noogs. Had Stephens played the final two months of the season, winning three consecutive games is much easier to accomplish than four. Aided by tired legs from Chattanooga or not, Furman won the revenge conference championship game and made the tournament for the first time in 43 years. Despite this drought, they’ve been a solid team in the Bob Richey era, having not been outside of the top 100 of KenPom since he took over as head coach in 2017. Though reaching the tournament might’ve been the first goal, it wasn’t the only one accomplished, who beat Virginia in a game where they trailed by three with under 30 seconds with Virginia inbounding. From January 15th onward, Furman only lost to two teams, one of them being the eventual runners up in San Diego State, the second being lowly Citadel. Ed Conroy returned to The Citadel, 13 years after he led them to 20 wins. In a game where the line was double digits in favor of Furman, The Citadel scored 29 points in the final 12 minutes, an offense which is at best below average. Over an entire 40 minutes, the Bulldogs would’ve been on pace to get to 100. This was a team who scored in the 40s as often as they scored in the 80s. The college basketball season, as random as it is, has more outcomes that don’t make sense than those that do. 

Southland

Preseason Favorite- Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Preseason #217, overperformed by 44 spots)

Biggest Miss- McNeese State (Preseason #242, underperformed by 97 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (AQ) (16 Seed) - Lost to Alabama in the Round of 64

173. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Preseason #217, overperformed by 44 spots)

209. Northwestern State (Preseason #247, overperformed by 38 spots)

252. Nicholls State (Preseason #236, underperformed by 16 spots)

275. Southeastern Louisiana (Preseason #253, underperformed by 22 spots)

305. Texas A&M-Commerce (Preseason #300, underperformed by 5 spots)

326. Incarnate Word (Preseason #336, overperformed by 10 spots)

334. New Orleans (Preseason #282, underperformed by 52 spots)

339. McNeese State (Preseason #242, underperformed by 97 spots)

349. Houston Christian (Preseason #325, underperformed by 24 spots)

356. Lamar (Preseason #360, overperformed by 4 spots)

Image Credit: University of New Orleans Athletics 

Incarnate Word had an unremarkable season. Though there are some positives in Jonathan Cisse’s shooting and Davante Dennis’ defense, they were a poor offensive unit and an even worse defense. Despite the mundane nature of a poor season in a low major conference, the Cardinals were incredibly streaky. They had two winning streaks of three games or more, accounting for more than half of their wins. They had two losing streaks of five games or more, accounting for nearly 70% of their losses. Over 62% of their season was on one of their winning or losing streaks. On January 4th and 7th, on the first of two extended losing streaks, Incarnate Word lost to Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Texas A&M-CC on the other hand, never lost more than two consecutive games, including just two losses after January 21st. In this timeframe, Incarnate Word was on their final winning streak of the season before they’d go on to lose five consecutive games, two of these losses being to Northwestern State, who finished second in the conference behind A&M-CC. Northwestern State had a five game losing streak in late December, but a 9 game-winning streak between January and February. Despite it being a season defined by streaks in the league, the top-seeded Islanders only needed to win two consecutive games in their conference tournament to earn the automatic bid. The most interesting of all the Southland teams though is New Orleans. The Privateers didn’t win consecutive games until January, and although their longest losing streak at the time was four, they were 3-9 to enter 2023. They went on a three game winning streak before losing nine consecutive games. At 3-10 in conference play, New Orleans was at great risk of missing the conference tournament, before they won four consecutive games. They came up four points short in the conference tournament against the runners up Northwestern State. If we ignore a loss to McNeese State to end their season, New Orleans won three consecutive games, dropped nine straight, and then won six consecutive games. 

Summit

Preseason Favorite- South Dakota (Preseason #142, underperformed by 175 spots)

Biggest Miss - South Dakota (Preseason #142, underperformed by 175 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Oral Roberts (AQ) (12 Seed) - Lost to Duke in the Round of 64

101. Oral Roberts (Preseason #167, overperformed by 66 spots)

182. South Dakota State (Preseason #174, underperformed by 8 spots)

193. St. Thomas (Preseason #313, overperformed by 120 spots)

238. North Dakota State (Preseason #245, overperformed by 7 spots)

272. North Dakota (Preseason #349, overperformed by 77 spots)

285. Western Illinois (Preseason #331, overperformed by 46 spots)

292. Denver (Preseason #226, underperformed by 66 spots)

296. Kansas City (Preseason #297, overperformed by 1 spots)

317. South Dakota (Preseason #142, underperformed by 175 spots)

335. Omaha (Preseason #317, underperformed by 18 spots)

Image Credit: Western Illinois University Athletics

Oral Roberts might’ve as well been given a bye to the second weekend with how they were treated after cruising through the regular season and earning a 12 seed in the tournament. Though they were blown out by Duke in the first round, what they were able to do behind Connor Vanover, Patrick Mwamba and Max Abmas shouldn’t be remembered by a 20 point loss to a blue blood. Oral Roberts only lost a single game between Thanksgiving and the end of the season. None of those losses were within conference play, meaning this was the second straight season in the summit where a team ran the table. Though South Dakota State was comfortably the second place team in the conference, with what they lost in the transfer portal, they weren’t able to compete with Oral Roberts, losing by an average of 21 points in their two conference matchups. South Dakota being picked as the favorite coming into the season might not have been the universal pick, but them finishing at the bottom half of the conference, especially with the talent joining their roster was a surprise. Paul Bruns didn’t have the season he was expected to have. Paul was the best player on a bad team the previous year. Making a transition to a deeper team, where you aren’t the guy isn’t the easiest thing, with Bruns not being as consistent on the offensive end, nor receiving the minutes on a consistent basis he saw the previous year at North Dakota. Lukas Kisunas was one of the most dominant big men in the conference for Denver, getting wherever he wanted in the paint, with there not being another offensive lineman sized player to match up with his size and strength. Tommy Bruner was a more efficient scorer in his first year but his lack of consistency as a playmaker let a lot of games slip away that they otherwise outplayed their opponents.  

Sun Belt

Preseason Favorite- Georgia State (Preseason #145, underperformed by 155 spots)

Biggest Miss- Southern Miss (Preseason #321, overperformed by 228 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Louisiana (AQ) (13 Seed) - Lost to Tennessee in the Round of 64

80. Louisiana (Preseason #168, overperformed by 88 spots)

87. Marshall (Preseason #238, overperformed by 151 spots)

93. Southern Miss (Preseason #321, overperformed by 228 spots)

104. South Alabama (Preseason #210, overperformed by 106 spots)

128. James Madison (Preseason #175, overperformed by 47 spots)

136. Troy (Preseason #255, overperformed by 119 spots)

179. Old Dominion (Preseason #261, overperformed by 82 spots)

190. Texas State (Preseason #216, overperformed by 26 spots)

197. Appalachian State (Preseason #246, overperformed by 49 spots)

205. Georgia Southern (Preseason #315, overperformed by 110 spots)

273. UL Monroe (Preseason #343, overperformed by 70 spots)

288. Arkansas State (Preseason #305, overperformed by 17 spots)

300. Georgia State (Preseason #145, underperformed by 155 spots)

307. Coastal Carolina (Preseason #270, underperformed by 37 spots)

Image Credit: Old Dominion University Athletics

Dwon Odom was given the keys to the team following transferring with his coach over to Georgia State. He was among the least efficient high volume scorers in the country, with an eFG% of 45.0 on 300 shots. Odom was tasked with playmaking to an extent he wasn’t while at Xavier, and though this improved compared to his lesser role at his previous school, his shooting, compared to 59.1 eFG% on 150 shots the previous year is stunning. This was a tournament team the previous year, and they brought in a player like Odom who led them to be expected to be at least back in the conversation if not the favorite in their conference. Georgia State went from preseason favorite to arguably the worst team in the Sun Belt. Odom underperformed, but this team didn’t do itself a whole lot of other favors. This was among the worst shooting teams in the conference, while allowing their opponents to shoot among the best percentages, a 7.5% discrepancy, ranking near the top of the country in this difference. Southern Miss was on the other end of the spectrum, who only had four losses on Valentine's Day. The Golden Eagles did a lot of things well and didn’t have very many exploitable holes, making them one of the best surprises in the country, and giving them their most wins in nearly a decade. Marshall was one of these pre-Valentine’s Day losses, and while they weren’t as surprising as a top tier Sun Belt team as Southern Miss, largely due to their fast pace and the combination of Taevion Kinsey and Andrew Taylor, a top three finish was an overperformance. Kinsey attempted 440 two point field goals, which was only 40 more than the previous season, at a clip of 8% better. Louisiana didn’t lose a game in January, with Jordan Brown putting up a mere 360 two point field goals. Though Brown’s domination inside played a big part in his team’s success and eventual tournament appearance, Louisiana relied on its three point shooting, the trio of Greg Williams, Kentrell Garnett, and Jalen Dalcourt all shot above 37% on over 100 threes a piece on the season. This was quite the accomplishment, not only having multiple players shooting the ball as well as they did, but at such a high volume. On the other hand, Appalachian State didn’t have a single player check both of these boxes. 

SWAC

Preseason Favorite- Southern (Preseason #214, underperformed by 65 spots)

Biggest Miss- Bethune-Cookman (Preseason #227, underperformed by 110 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Texas Southern (AQ) (16 Seed) - Lost to Fairleigh Dickinson in the First Four

146. Grambling State (Preseason #254, overperformed by 108 spots)

241. Alcorn State (Preseason #275, overperformed by 34 spots)

279. Southern (Preseason #214, underperformed by 65 spots)

286. Prairie View A&M (Preseason #284, underperformed by 2 spots)

297. Texas Southern (Preseason #243, underperformed by 54 spots)

302. Alabama A&M (Preseason #302, Spot on)

310. Jackson State (Preseason #327, overperformed by 17 spots)

321. Arkansas Pine Bluff (Preseason #333, overperformed by 12 spots)

337. Bethune-Cookman (Preseason #227, underperformed by 110 spots)

357. Florida A&M (Preseason #350, underperformed by 7 spots)

359. Alabama State (Preseason #308, underperformed by 51 spots)

361. Mississippi Valley State (Preseason #359, underperformed by 2 spots)

Image Credit: UA Pine Bluff Athletics

Grambling State beat two NIT level teams and was on a 9 game winning streak entering the conference tournament. They weren’t the highest-seeded team in the conference, but they likely had the best chance out of any team to win both their first four game, if tasked to do so, and put a real scare into a one seed. Alcorn State was the top seed, and after starting off the season poorly, as most low majors do, having to play buy games to fund their programs, from January 4th up until the conference tournament, they only lost two games, and went from 3-10 to 18-12. Southern was the preseason favorite. Their offense never caught up to their defense, and the combination of short possession lengths with poor shooting from outside and a lack of a presence on the offensive boards made it difficult for the Jaguars to live up to their preseason expectations. Despite this, they were able to create more possessions for themselves with Brion Whitley and Bryson Etienne both being terrific in passing lanes and as on ball defenders. It likely was going to be one of these three teams, the preseason favorite, the top seed, or the giant slayer. Texas Southern played six games against these three teams in the regular season. They lost five of them. If Southern’s offense was a liability, Texas Southern’s was like an anchor that carried behind them. They were the third worst three-point shooting team in the country. They were bottom 100 from two. They were bottom 50 in assist rate. They turned the ball over more than all but 50 teams. Despite this, they won a game against tournament team Arizona State, despite shooting comparably from the line than they did from three, 36% and 35% respectively. Texas Southern won that game 67-66. They aren’t trying to win games by outscoring their opponents. They don’t have the type of offense to win games in that manner, they don’t play at that type of pace, crashing the defensive glass, but running back in transition off of a missed shot on the other end. Texas Southern went on to beat both Alcorn State and Grambling State in the Conference Tournament. Though beating a top seeded team was going to be difficult for any team out of the conference, the opportunity to do so is a privilege earned, specifically in the final weeks of the season. Texas Southern was a bystander for the majority of the season, but their ability to out rebound- they were plus 5 on the offensive glass in both the Alcorn State game and the Grambling State game- made up for their lack of shooting. 

WAC

Preseason Favorite- Grand Canyon (Preseason #88, underperformed by 11 spots)

Biggest Miss- New Mexico State (Preseason #97, underperformed by 125 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Grand Canyon (AQ) (14 Seed) - Lost to Gonzaga in the Round of 64

• Utah Valley (NIT) - Lost to UAB in the semifinals 

56. Sam Houston State (Preseason #143, overperformed by 87 spots)

66. Utah Valley (Preseason #104, overperformed by 38 spots)

99. Grand Canyon (Preseason #88, underperformed by 11 spots)

111. Southern Utah (Preseason #118, overperformed by 7 spots)

139. Utah Tech (Preseason #260, overperformed by 121 spots)

154. Seattle (Preseason #122, underperformed by 32 spots)

165. Stephen F. Austin (Preseason #92, underperformed by 73 spots)

169. Tarleton (Preseason #240, overperformed by 71 spots)

198. California Baptist (Preseason #166, underperformed by 32 spots)

204. Abilene Christian (Preseason #107, underperformed by 97 spots)

222. New Mexico State (Preseason #97, underperformed by 125 spots)

228. UT Rio Grande Valley (Preseason #345, overperformed by 117 spots)

231. UT Arlington (Preseason #299, overperformed by 68 spots)

Image Credit: Southern Utah University Athletics

Over the past half-decade, The WAC has transformed itself from existing just for the purpose of providing New Mexico State something to do between January and March, to be a gauntlet of a single bid conference. Between Bryce Drew taking Grand Canyon to tournaments in two of the last three years, Chris Victor breathing new life into Seattle, Mark Madsen turning Utah Valley into a contender and the newcomers adding some really good depth to the conference, the WAC should look to evolve into a multi-bid conference over the next few years. Sam Houston State was in at large discussions, aided in good part to a strong non-con showing, with wins over Oklahoma and Utah, as well as being within the top 75 in most metrics. Though a tough 2-3 stretch early in conference play likely eliminated any real hopes of a multi-bid WAC, as the teams get stronger, those teams’ ability to withstand a mere four conference losses and still stand a chance at an at large should expand. Grand Canyon was one of those three losses for the Bearkats in early January, and though they were not the strongest team throughout conference play, between the shooting of Noah Baumann and the playmaking of Ray Harrison, the season-ending injury of Jovan Blacksher, the preseason POTY was withstood. New Mexico State had a very ugly first and final year under Greg Heiar, coaching players convicted of hazing and a fatal shooting, all within the period of three months. It was a disappointing year for the Aggies even ahead of their season being suspended, going on a nine game losing streak to start conference play. Xavier Pinson didn’t take advantage of a lower competition level that he faced at Missouri as it was expected he would. Though he was better on the aggregate level than at Missouri, he lacked the efficiency to be amongst the conference players of the year as it was expected he would be. Tarleton remains a polarizing team under Billy Gillispie. Freddy Hicks could lead the country in free throws next year, as he is among the most effective when it comes to drawing fouls. Contrasting the high free throw rate from Hicks and his team is the lack of perimeter shots. Billy is coaching his players to take shots at the rim, and in turn, draw as many fouls as they can. 

WCC

Preseason Favorite- Gonzaga (Preseason #1, underperformed by 5 spots)

Biggest Miss- San Diego (Preseason #106, underperformed by 115 spots)

Tournament Team(s):

• Gonzaga (AQ) (3 Seed) - Lost to UConn in the Elite Eight

• Saint Mary’s (5 Seed) - Lost to UConn in the Round of 32

6. Gonzaga (Preseason #1, underperformed by 5 spots)

21. Saint Mary's (Preseason #66, overperformed by 45 spots)

83. Santa Clara (Preseason #136, overperformed by 53 spots)

91. BYU (Preseason #120, overperformed by 29 spots)

107. Loyola Marymount (Preseason #135, overperformed by 28 spots)

120. San Francisco (Preseason #80, underperformed by 40 spots)

153. Portland (Preseason #76, underperformed by 77 spots)

170. Pacific (Preseason #208, overperformed by 38 spots)

187. Pepperdine (Preseason #140, underperformed by 47 spots)

221. San Diego (Preseason #106, underperformed by 115 spots)

Image Credit: University of Portland Athletics

Though the end result was similar to most seasons over the past few decades in the WCC, with Gonzaga outlasting any other conference qualifier in the tournament by multiple rounds, Saint Mary’s was viewed as the superior team by most non-human metrics through a good portion of the season. After Saint Mary’s beat the Zags in Moraga, they essentially claimed a portion of the WCC Title, a portion to later be shared with Gonzaga, after Gonzaga won the return game to close out the season, and then again in Las Vegas to claim the Tournament title. Loyola Marymount became the first team in conference history to beat the aforementioned Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, and BYU all in the same year, and though this was the highlight of their season and not a tournament appearance, this was an important bounce-back year for Stan Johnson. Herb Sendek has had two very impressive seasons back to back, with Jalen Williams being to thank for 2022 and Brandin Podziemski being the team’s best player this season. Continuity might’ve been too much alone to rely on for Shantay Leggens and his Pilots. This was more balanced than the previous year. Though they were only a middle-of-the-pack conference team, there wasn't a glaring weakness or overreliance in their play style. This year, they played a whole lot like Penn State, shooting a ton of threes, at a good rate, but not getting any second chances with the ball off of offensive rebounding. The main difference between these two teams and what led to one nearly backing into the Sweet 16 and the other finishing at the bottom of its conference was the other end of the court. Portland’s opponents took a ton of threes on the offensive end, and they shot them at an elite rate. This was exchanged for fewer looks at the rim and in turn, fewer free throws. Though luck does play some part in determining three-point defense, the shots that the Pilots were giving up were open, which accounts for both the rate at which threes were being taken and the clip that they were being shot. 

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Thank you for joining me this season! Here’s the uninterrupted list

1. UConn (Preseason #61, overperformed by 60 spots)

2. Kansas (Preseason #10, overperformed by 8 spots)

3. Alabama (Preseason #36, overperformed by 33 spots)

4. Houston (Preseason #2, underperformed by 2 spots)

5. Purdue (Preseason #40, overperformed by 35 spots)

6. Gonzaga (Preseason #1, underperformed by 5 spots)

7. UCLA (Preseason #15, overperformed by 8 spots)

8. San Diego State (Preseason #12, overperformed by 4 spots)

9. Texas (Preseason #22, overperformed by 13 spots)

10. Miami (FL) (Preseason #16, overperformed by 6 spots)

11. Creighton (Preseason #27, overperformed by 16 spots)

12. Florida Atlantic (Preseason #103, overperformed by 91 spots)

13. Duke (Preseason #7, underperformed by 6 spots)

14. Memphis (Preseason #29, overperformed by 15 spots)

15. Marquette (Preseason #63, overperformed by 48 spots)

16. Kansas State (Preseason #69, overperformed by 53 spots)

17. Arizona (Preseason #18, overperformed by 1 spot)

18. Xavier (Preseason #23, overperformed by 5 spots)

19. Arkansas (Preseason #3, underperformed by 16 spots)

20. Indiana (Preseason #13, underperformed by 7 spots)

21. Saint Mary's (Preseason #66, overperformed by 45 spots)

22. TCU (Preseason #11, underperformed by 11 spots)

23. Tennessee (Preseason #6, underperformed by 17 spots)

24. Michigan State (Preseason #49, overperformed by 25 spots)

25. Texas A&M (Preseason #9, underperformed by 16 spots)

26. Baylor (Preseason #5, underperformed by 21 spots)

27. Virginia (Preseason #4, underperformed by 23 spots)

28. Arizona State (Preseason #48, overperformed by 20 spots)

29. Kentucky (Preseason #8, underperformed by 21 spots)

30. Penn State (Preseason #57, overperformed by 27 spots)

31. Boise State (Preseason #64, overperformed by 33 spots)

32. North Texas (Preseason #62, overperformed by 30 spots)

33. Utah State (Preseason #130, overperformed by 97 spots)

34. Iowa State (Preseason #39, overperformed by 5 spots)

35. Providence (Preseason #55, overperformed by 20 spots)

36. VCU (Preseason #54, overperformed by 18 spots)

37. Northwestern (Preseason #110, overperformed by 73 spots)

38. Nevada (Preseason #200, overperformed by 162 spots)

39. West Virginia (Preseason #52, overperformed by 13 spots)

40. Maryland (Preseason #73, overperformed by 33 spots)

41. Missouri (Preseason #53, overperformed by 12 spots)

42. Mississippi State (Preseason #51, overperformed by 9 spots)

43. UAB (Preseason #50, overperformed by 7 spots)

44. Illinois (Preseason #17, underperformed by 27 spots)

45. Pittsburgh (Preseason #93, overperformed by 48 spots)

46. Oklahoma State (Preseason #34, underperformed by 12 spots)

47. USC (Preseason #32, underperformed by 15 spots)

48. North Carolina State (Preseason #81, overperformed by 33 spots)

49. Iowa (Preseason #67, overperformed by 18 spots)

50. Auburn (Preseason #24, underperformed by 26 spots)

51. Villanova (Preseason #26, underperformed by 25 spots)

52. Oregon (Preseason #20, underperformed by 32 spots)

53. Drake (Preseason #38, underperformed by 15 spots)

54. Utah (Preseason #111, overperformed by 57 spots)

55. Rutgers (Preseason #71, overperformed by 16 spots)

56. Sam Houston State (Preseason #143, overperformed by 87 spots)

57. Oklahoma (Preseason #47, underperformed by 10 spots)

58. Dayton (Preseason #21, underperformed by 37 spots)

59. North Carolina (Preseason #14, underperformed by 45 spots)

60. UCF (Preseason #94, overperformed by 34 spots)

61. Seton Hall (Preseason #58, underperformed by 3 spots)

62. Wisconsin (Preseason #84, overperformed by 22 spots)

63. Colorado (Preseason #70, overperformed by 7 spots)

64. Vanderbilt (Preseason #101, overperformed by 37 spots)

65. Texas Tech (Preseason #41, underperformed by 24 spots)

66. Utah Valley (Preseason #104, overperformed by 38 spots)

67. Cincinnati (Preseason #78, overperformed by 11 spots)

68. Charleston (Preseason #212, overperformed by 144 spots)

69. Ohio State (Preseason #44, underperformed by 25 spots)

70. Washington State (Preseason #60, underperformed by 10 spots)

71. Clemson (Preseason #68, underperformed by 3 spots)

72. Stanford (Preseason #31, underperformed by 41 spots)

73. Princeton (Preseason #183, overperformed by 110 spots)

74. Kent State (Preseason #109, overperformed by 35 spots)

75. Florida (Preseason #25, underperformed by 50 spots)

76. Wake Forest (Preseason #72, underperformed by 4 spots)

77. Iona (Preseason #125, overperformed by 48 spots)

78. Michigan (Preseason #19, underperformed by 59 spots)

79. Yale (Preseason #190, overperformed by 111 spots)

80. Louisiana (Preseason #168, overperformed by 88 spots)

81. Virginia Tech (Preseason #42, underperformed by 39 spots)

82. New Mexico (Preseason #124, overperformed by 42 spots)

83. Santa Clara (Preseason #136, overperformed by 53 spots)

84. St. John's (Preseason #43, underperformed by 41 spots)

85. Bradley (Preseason #129, overperformed by 44 spots)

86. UC Santa Barbara (Preseason #98, overperformed by 12 spots)

87. Marshall (Preseason #238, overperformed by 151 spots)

88. Akron (Preseason #119, overperformed by 31 spots)

89. Liberty (Preseason #116, overperformed by 27 spots)

90. Nebraska (Preseason #128, overperformed by 38 spots)

91. BYU (Preseason #120, overperformed by 29 spots)

92. Hofstra (Preseason #153, overperformed by 61 spots)

93. Southern Miss (Preseason #321, overperformed by 228 spots)

94. Saint Louis (Preseason #28, underperformed by 66 spots)

95. Eastern Washington (Preseason #205, overperformed by 110 spots)

96. Towson (Preseason #74, underperformed by 22 spots)

97. Syracuse (Preseason #86, underperformed by 11 spots)

98. Tulane (Preseason #33, underperformed by 65 spots)

99. Grand Canyon (Preseason #88, underperformed by 11 spots)

100. Toledo (Preseason #77, underperformed by 23 spots)

101. Oral Roberts (Preseason #167, overperformed by 66 spots)

102. Indiana State (Preseason #155, overperformed by 53 spots)

103. Furman (Preseason #157, overperformed by 54 spots)

104. South Alabama (Preseason #210, overperformed by 106 spots)

105. UC Irvine (Preseason #185, overperformed by 80 spots)

106. Washington (Preseason #56, underperformed by 50 spots)

107. Loyola Marymount (Preseason #135, overperformed by 28 spots)

108. Montana State (Preseason #150, overperformed by 42 spots)

109. Wichita State (Preseason #100, underperformed by 9 spots)

110. UNLV (Preseason #117, overperformed by 7 spots)

111. Southern Utah (Preseason #118, overperformed by 7 spots)

112. Temple (Preseason #37, underperformed by 75 spots)

113. Hawai'i (Preseason #121, overperformed by 8 spots)

114. Southern Illinois (Preseason #99, underperformed by 15 spots)

115. Kennesaw State (Preseason #237, overperformed by 122 spots)

116. Vermont (Preseason #89, underperformed by 27 spots)

117. UMass Lowell (Preseason #199, overperformed by 82 spots)

118. San Jose State (Preseason #241, overperformed by 123 spots)

119. DePaul (Preseason #151, overperformed by 32 spots)

120. San Francisco (Preseason #80, underperformed by 40 spots)

121. UNC Wilmington (Preseason #203, overperformed by 82 spots)

122. Colorado State (Preseason #82, underperformed by 40 spots)

123. Colgate (Preseason #147, overperformed by 24 spots)

124. Samford (Preseason #144, overperformed by 20 spots)

125. Butler (Preseason #46, underperformed by 79 spots)

126. Belmont (Preseason #172, overperformed by 46 spots)

127. Mississippi (Preseason #75, underperformed by 52 spots)

128. James Madison (Preseason #175, overperformed by 47 spots)

129. Cornell (Preseason #251, overperformed by 122 spots)

130. Ball State (Preseason #139, overperformed by 9 spots)

131. Cal State Fullerton (Preseason #196, overperformed by 65 spots)

132. Charlotte (Preseason #250, overperformed by 118 spots)

133. Ohio (Preseason #132, underperformed by 1 spot)

134. Pennsylvania (Preseason #156, overperformed by 22 spots)

135. UNC Greensboro (Preseason #165, overperformed by 30 spots)

136. Troy (Preseason #255, overperformed by 119 spots)

137. Fresno State (Preseason #137, Spot on)

138. Boston College (Preseason #79, underperformed by 59 spots)

139. Utah Tech (Preseason #260, overperformed by 121 spots)

140. Notre Dame (Preseason #59, underperformed by 81 spots)

141. UNC Asheville (Preseason #178, overperformed by 37 spots)

142. Brown (Preseason #193, overperformed by 51 spots)

143. Wyoming (Preseason #30, underperformed by 113 spots)

144. Fordham (Preseason #161, overperformed by 17 spots)

145. Northern Kentucky (Preseason #157, overperformed by 12 spots)

146. Grambling State (Preseason #254, overperformed by 108 spots)

147. Georgia Tech (Preseason #204, overperformed by 57 spots)

148. South Florida (Preseason #114, underperformed by 34 spots)

149. Lipscomb (Preseason #298, overperformed by 149 spots)

150. Youngstown State (Preseason #235, overperformed by 85 spots)

151. Duquesne (Preseason #258, overperformed by 107 spots)

152. Air Force (Preseason #215, overperformed by 63 spots)

153. Portland (Preseason #76, underperformed by 77 spots)

154. Seattle (Preseason #122, underperformed by 32 spots)

155. Eastern Kentucky (Preseason #328, overperformed by 173 spots)

156. George Mason (Preseason #133, underperformed by 23 spots)

157. Davidson (Preseason #108, underperformed by 49 spots)

158. Missouri State (Preseason #184, overperformed by 26 spots)

159. UC Riverside (Preseason #180, overperformed by 21 spots)

160. Chattanooga (Preseason #177, overperformed by 17 spots)

161. Longwood (Preseason #112, underperformed by 49 spots)

162. Buffalo (Preseason #224, overperformed by 62 spots)

163. Georgia (Preseason #87, underperformed by 76 spots)

164. Murray State (Preseason #206, overperformed by 42 spots)

165. Stephen F. Austin (Preseason #92, underperformed by 73 spots)

166. Richmond (Preseason #113, underperformed by 53 spots)

167. East Carolina (Preseason #159, underperformed by 8 spots)

168. Radford (Preseason #318, overperformed by 150 spots)

169. Tarleton (Preseason #240, overperformed by 71 spots)

170. Pacific (Preseason #208, overperformed by 38 spots)

171. Long Beach State (Preseason #154, underperformed by 17 spots)

172. Middle Tennessee (Preseason #115, underperformed by 57 spots)

173. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Preseason #217, overperformed by 44 spots)

174. SMU (Preseason #85, underperformed by 89 spots)

175. Montana (Preseason #187, overperformed by 12 spots)

176. Navy (Preseason #232, overperformed by 56 spots)

177. UC Davis (Preseason #248, overperformed by 71 spots)

178. St. Bonaventure (Preseason #123, underperformed by 55 spots)

179. Old Dominion (Preseason #261, overperformed by 82 spots)

180. Cleveland State (Preseason #288, overperformed by 108 spots)

181. LSU (Preseason #35, underperformed by 146 spots)

182. South Dakota State (Preseason #174, underperformed by 8 spots)

183. Saint Joseph's (Preseason #164, underperformed by 19 spots)

184. Milwaukee (Preseason #334, overperformed by 150 spots)

185. Harvard (Preseason #173, underperformed by 12 spots)

186. Rider (Preseason #148, underperformed by 38 spots)

187. Pepperdine (Preseason #140, underperformed by 47 spots)

188. Northern Arizona (Preseason #194, overperformed by 6 spots)

189. Western Kentucky (Preseason #83, underperformed by 106 spots)

190. Texas State (Preseason #216, overperformed by 26 spots)

191. Florida Gulf Coast (Preseason #219, overperformed by 28 spots)

192. Drexel (Preseason #310, overperformed by 118 spots)

193. St. Thomas (Preseason #313, overperformed by 120 spots)

194. Howard (Preseason #211, overperformed by 17 spots)

195. Massachusetts (Preseason #102, underperformed by 93 spots)

196. Northern Iowa (Preseason #262, overperformed by 66 spots)

197. Appalachian State (Preseason #246, overperformed by 49 spots)

198. California Baptist (Preseason #166, underperformed by 32 spots)

199. Florida State (Preseason #45, underperformed by 154 spots)

200. Quinnipiac (Preseason #160, underperformed by 40 spots)

201. Campbell (Preseason #309, overperformed by 108 spots)

202. UTEP (Preseason #146, underperformed by 56 spots)

203. Wright State (Preseason #228, overperformed by 25 spots)

204. Abilene Christian (Preseason #107, underperformed by 97 spots)

205. Georgia Southern (Preseason #315, overperformed by 110 spots)

206. Stetson (Preseason #357, overperformed by 151 spots)

207. Norfolk State (Preseason #95, underperformed by 112 spots)

208. Queens (Preseason #338, overperformed by 130 spots)

209. Northwestern State (Preseason #247, overperformed by 38 spots)

210. George Washington (Preseason #141, underperformed by 69 spots)

211. Minnesota (Preseason #90, underperformed by 121 spots)

212. North Carolina Central (Preseason #230, overperformed by 18 spots)

213. Louisiana Tech (Preseason #131, underperformed by 82 spots)

214. Siena (Preseason #169, underperformed by 45 spots)

215. Gardner-Webb (Preseason #181, underperformed by 34 spots)

216. Rice (Preseason #158, underperformed by 58 spots)

217. Morehead State (Preseason #202, underperformed by 15 spots)

218. Weber State (Preseason #306, overperformed by 88 spots)

219. FIU (Preseason #287, overperformed by 68 spots)

220. South Carolina (Preseason #65, underperformed by 155 spots)

221. San Diego (Preseason #106, underperformed by 115 spots)

222. New Mexico State (Preseason #97, underperformed by 125 spots)

223. Purdue Fort Wayne (Preseason #171, underperformed by 52 spots)

224. Fairleigh Dickinson (Preseason #277, overperformed by 53 spots)

225. Georgetown (Preseason #127, underperformed by 98 spots)

226. Bryant (Preseason #134, underperformed by 92 spots)

227. Jacksonville (Preseason #91, underperformed by 136 spots)

228. UT Rio Grande Valley (Preseason #345, overperformed by 117 spots)

229. North Florida (Preseason #213, underperformed by 16 spots)

230. Southeast Missouri State (Preseason #267, overperformed by 37 spots)

231. UT Arlington (Preseason #299, overperformed by 68 spots)

232. Detroit Mercy (Preseason #186, underperformed by 46 spots)

233. Niagara (Preseason #195, underperformed by 38 spots)

234. Jacksonville State (Preseason #244, overperformed by 10 spots)

235. UC San Diego (Preseason #189, underperformed by 46 spots)

236. UTSA (Preseason #311, overperformed by 75 spots)

237. Western Carolina (Preseason #324, overperformed by 87 spots)

238. North Dakota State (Preseason #245, overperformed by 7 spots)

239. Robert Morris (Preseason #268, overperformed by 29 spots)

240. Oregon State (Preseason #279, overperformed by 39 spots)

241. Alcorn State (Preseason #275, overperformed by 34 spots)

242. La Salle (Preseason #239, underperformed by 3 spots)

243. Delaware (Preseason #197, underperformed by 46 spots)

244. Canisius (Preseason #191, underperformed by 53 spots)

245. Wofford (Preseason #182, underperformed by 63 spots)

246. Sacramento State (Preseason #252, overperformed by 6 spots)

247. Winthrop (Preseason #192, underperformed by 55 spots)

248. Boston University (Preseason #229, underperformed by 19 spots)

249. UMBC (Preseason #265, overperformed by 16 spots)

250. Northern Colorado (Preseason #170, underperformed by 80 spots)

251. Mercer (Preseason #281, overperformed by 30 spots)

252. Nicholls State (Preseason #236, underperformed by 16 spots)

253. Bellarmine (Preseason #259, overperformed by 6 spots)

254. Idaho State (Preseason #351, overperformed by 97 spots)

255. East Tennessee State (Preseason #249, underperformed by 6 spots)

256. USC Upstate (Preseason #256, Spot on)

257. Maryland Eastern Shore (Preseason #289, overperformed by 32 spots)

258. Fairfield (Preseason #162, underperformed by 96 spots)

259. Northern Illinois (Preseason #335, overperformed by 76 spots)

260. Rhode Island (Preseason #138, underperformed by 122 spots)

261. Portland State (Preseason #354, overperformed by 93 spots)

262. North Alabama (Preseason #348, overperformed by 86 spots)

263. California (Preseason #198, underperformed by 65 spots)

264. Loyola Chicago (Preseason #96, underperformed by 168 spots)

265. Mount St. Mary's (Preseason #188, underperformed by 77 spots)

266. Dartmouth (Preseason #280, overperformed by 14 spots)

267. Bowling Green (Preseason #314, overperformed by 47 spots)

268. Lafayette (Preseason #323, overperformed by 55 spots)

269. Louisville (Preseason #105, underperformed by 164 spots)

270. SIU Edwardsville (Preseason #221, underperformed by 49 spots)

271. Marist (Preseason #291, overperformed by 20 spots)

272. North Dakota (Preseason #349, overperformed by 77 spots)

273. UL Monroe (Preseason #343, overperformed by 70 spots)

274. UT Martin (Preseason #225, underperformed by 49 spots)

275. Southeastern Louisiana (Preseason #253, underperformed by 22 spots)

276. Merrimack (Preseason #201, underperformed by 75 spots)

277. Miami (OH) (Preseason #149, underperformed by 128 spots)

278. American (Preseason #264, underperformed by 14 spots)

279. Southern (Preseason #214, underperformed by 65 spots)

280. Cal State Bakersfield (Preseason #330, overperformed by 50 spots)

281. Tennessee State (Preseason #234, underperformed by 47 spots)

282. New Hampshire (Preseason #329, overperformed by 47 spots)

283. Army (Preseason #207, underperformed by 76 spots)

284. Oakland (Preseason #209, underperformed by 75 spots)

285. Western Illinois (Preseason #331, overperformed by 46 spots)

286. Prairie View A&M (Preseason #284, underperformed by 2 spots)

287. UIC (Preseason #294, overperformed by 7 spots)

288. Arkansas State (Preseason #305, overperformed by 17 spots)

289. Maine (Preseason #358, overperformed by 69 spots)

290. Tennessee Tech (Preseason #356, overperformed by 66 spots)

291. Cal Poly (Preseason #278, underperformed by 13 spots)

292. Denver (Preseason #226, underperformed by 66 spots)

293. William & Mary (Preseason #303, overperformed by 10 spots)

294. Saint Peter's (Preseason #283, underperformed by 11 spots)

295. Valparaiso (Preseason #179, underperformed by 116 spots)

296. Kansas City (Preseason #297, overperformed by 1 spot)

297. Texas Southern (Preseason #243, underperformed by 54 spots)

298. Idaho (Preseason #342, overperformed by 44 spots)

299. Southern Indiana (Preseason #301, overperformed by 2 spots)

300. Georgia State (Preseason #145, underperformed by 155 spots)

301. Lehigh (Preseason #220, underperformed by 81 spots)

302. Alabama A&M (Preseason #302, Spot on)

303. Northeastern (Preseason #231, underperformed by 72 spots)

304. Illinois State (Preseason #271, underperformed by 33 spots)

305. Texas A&M-Commerce (Preseason #300, underperformed by 5 spots)

306. Chicago State (Preseason #355, overperformed by 49 spots)

307. Coastal Carolina (Preseason #270, underperformed by 37 spots)

308. Charleston Southern (Preseason #273, underperformed by 35 spots)

309. Bucknell (Preseason #272, underperformed by 37 spots)

310. Jackson State (Preseason #327, overperformed by 17 spots)

311. Morgan State (Preseason #316, overperformed by 5 spots)

312. Binghamton (Preseason #163, underperformed by 149 spots)

313. Central Arkansas (Preseason #307, underperformed by 6 spots)

314. Manhattan (Preseason #152, underperformed by 162 spots)

315. Wagner (Preseason #295, underperformed by 20 spots)

316. The Citadel (Preseason #326, overperformed by 10 spots)

317. South Dakota (Preseason #142, underperformed by 175 spots)

318. High Point (Preseason #292, underperformed by 26 spots)

319. Western Michigan (Preseason #312, underperformed by 7 spots)

320. Loyola Maryland (Preseason #296, underperformed by 24 spots)

321. Arkansas Pine Bluff (Preseason #333, overperformed by 12 spots)

322. NJIT (Preseason #290, underperformed by 32 spots)

323. Cal State Northridge (Preseason #285, underperformed by 38 spots)

324. Elon (Preseason #319, underperformed by 5 spots)

325. Stonehill (Preseason #340, overperformed by 15 spots)

326. Incarnate Word (Preseason #336, overperformed by 10 spots)

327. North Carolina A&T (Preseason #257, underperformed by 70 spots)

328. Austin Peay (Preseason #266, underperformed by 62 spots)

329. Little Rock (Preseason #274, underperformed by 55 spots)

330. Eastern Michigan (Preseason #126, underperformed by 204 spots)

331. Tulsa (Preseason #176, underperformed by 155 spots)

332. Lindenwood (Preseason #363, overperformed by 31 spots)

333. Central Connecticut (Preseason #233, underperformed by 100 spots)

334. New Orleans (Preseason #282, underperformed by 52 spots)

335. Omaha (Preseason #317, underperformed by 18 spots)

336. Sacred Heart (Preseason #222, underperformed by 114 spots)

337. Bethune-Cookman (Preseason #227, underperformed by 110 spots)

338. Stony Brook (Preseason #276, underperformed by 62 spots)

339. McNeese State (Preseason #242, underperformed by 97 spots)

340. Presbyterian (Preseason #353, overperformed by 13 spots)

341. Columbia (Preseason #269, underperformed by 72 spots)

342. St. Francis (PA) (Preseason #218, underperformed by 124 spots)

343. Holy Cross (Preseason #320, underperformed by 23 spots)

344. Hampton (Preseason #286, underperformed by 58 spots)

345. Central Michigan (Preseason #293, underperformed by 52 spots)

346. Coppin State (Preseason #304, underperformed by 42 spots)

347. Albany (Preseason #339, underperformed by 8 spots)

348. Monmouth (Preseason #332, underperformed by 16 spots)

349. Houston Christian (Preseason #325, underperformed by 24 spots)

350. Evansville (Preseason #346, underperformed by 4 spots)

351. Eastern Illinois (Preseason #322, underperformed by 29 spots)

352. South Carolina State (Preseason #341, underperformed by 11 spots)

353. St. Francis Brooklyn (Preseason #263, underperformed by 90 spots)

354. Delaware State (Preseason #347, underperformed by 7 spots)

355. VMI (Preseason #337, underperformed by 18 spots)

356. Lamar (Preseason #360, overperformed by 4 spots)

357. Florida A&M (Preseason #350, underperformed by 7 spots)

358. IUPUI (Preseason #362, overperformed by 4 spots)

359. Alabama State (Preseason #308, underperformed by 51 spots)

360. Hartford (Preseason #344, underperformed by 16 spots)

361. Mississippi Valley State (Preseason #359, underperformed by 2 spots)

362. Green Bay (Preseason #352, underperformed by 10 spots)

363. Long Island (Preseason #361, underperformed by 2 spots)

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