Projecting 30-win Teams

Chasing Magic Numbers

Can’t End on a Loss

There’s no sport in the world that inflates records quite like college basketball. For an arbitrary example consider, teams that finished with exactly 20 wins last season, including postseason results.

There were 32 20-win teams in 2024, making up nearly 9% of all Division 1 teams. Given the variability in games played due to conference and postseason tournaments, total victories hold little weight in college basketball. In fact, despite an identical win total, these teams lost between 11 and 17 games. The range in Torvik Ratings is equally wide, with the lowest-rated 20-win team, Central Connecticut, finishing outside the top 250 at Torvik the previous season. Meanwhile, several high-major and well-performing teams also reached 20 wins, including Oklahoma and St. John’s, who were on the brink of missing the tournament, and Michigan State, a nine seed that clinched its 20th win in the tournament against Mississippi State in the first round.

At the end of the day, a record means very little when considering the quality of the wins behind it. Central Connecticut's victory over Manhattan in November 2023 counted the same as Oklahoma's conference win over Iowa State when looking solely at win totals. However, this distinction still holds weight when it matters, serving as yet another arbitrary data point evaluated by the Selection Committee.

Aforementioned Michigan State was the at-large team with the fewest total wins at the time of Selection Sunday, holding just 19 wins.

The conversation every March revolves around teams needing to cross a certain win threshold (or avoid falling below a loss threshold) to be considered for at-large selection to the tournament. If Oklahoma had played just 16 Big 12 games and replaced two of their losses with wins against sub-250 teams, would they have moved from the bubble into the tournament? Similarly, St. John's, which played a tougher non-conference schedule in 2024, entered conference play with two more losses. If losses to teams like Michigan and Dayton had been swapped for easier victories, could a 22-11 record instead of a 20-13 one have changed their fate, keeping them from missing the tournament in 2024?

This is all to say, win total should mean very little, but it holds value to evaluators deciding who plays in the NCAA Tournament come March.

Elegy for the Victors

Gaudy win totals still look impressive, especially when contrasted with the double-digit loss total of a mediocre high-major team facing a mid-major in the first round of the tournament. A prime example from the 2019 NCAA tournament is the 32-3 Buffalo team, led by Nate Oats, playing against an 11-loss Arizona State squad featuring freshmen like Lu Dort and sophomore Remy Martin. Regardless of the quality of those victories, having such a stark discrepancy in total wins compared to your opponent must carry some mental weight, even just seeing it written on paper.

Through the first month of the season, several teams have introduced themselves as contenders for a gaudy win total, with a threshold of 30 wins on Selection Sunday being one that separates an impressive season from a dominant one.

High Major Contenders

Team: Marquette
Conference: Big East
Confidence Level: 2.25

A conference that produced three top-three seeds in the tournament the previous season has been among the most disappointing so far. While depth was a concern last season, the top-tier talent of Creighton, UConn, and Marquette masked the discrepancies created by mid-tier teams. UConn struggled significantly in Maui, though few are ready to write them off after back-to-back national championships. Creighton endured a three-game losing streak in November against beatable opponents, and St. John’s, a team many expected to break into the top tier, has been inconsistent.

With only three top-30 teams from the Big East in early December, and those teams already accumulating several losses, this could be a down year for the conference.

Despite these challenges, and concerns about teams expected to compete in the middle of the league, this is still a high-major conference. The talent gap isn’t as pronounced as it is in other leagues. KenPom is projecting a 25-6 record for Marquette ahead of the NCAA tournament, and with a quarterfinals spot in the Big East tournament in their sights, they may fall just short of this projection by Selection Sunday.

With games against Wisconsin, Iowa State, and Dayton still remaining on their non-conference slate, in addition to a taxing round-robin Big East schedule, expecting Marquette to drop only four games and then win the Big East tournament might be too optimistic.

Team: Gonzaga
Conference: WCC
Confidence Level: 6.5

Losing to West Virginia in the Bahamas wasn’t expected, but the Bulldogs have already accumulated several impressive wins in the non-conference. If they finish with another top-two seed in their conference, they’ll have only two opportunities for additional wins in the WCC tournament. KenPom projects the Zags to finish the regular season 28-3, putting them in the running to reach their goal of 30 wins. Notable non-conference opponents, including UCLA, Kentucky, and UConn, remain. However, if Gonzaga can go 2-1 against these teams, they’ll have plenty of breathing room against a potentially competitive WCC.

Gonzaga remains a wagon in win total.

The Bulldogs have been one of the easiest teams to back in surpassing this threshold for the past decade. Despite Saint Mary’s looking impressive early on and the addition of two more opponents to the WCC, this remains the safer bet.

Mid/Low-Major Powerhouses

Team: UC Irvine
Conference: Big West:
Confidence Level: 7

On Selection Sunday 2019, the Anteaters had 30 wins, and after ending Dean Wade’s collegiate career, Irvine would go on to fall to Oregon in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, in the “Louis the Queen” game. This isn’t territory Russell Turner is unfamiliar with.

Irvine plays a relatively easy non-conference schedule, with KenPom currently projecting a 28-4 regular season record and favoring the Anteaters in all but one of their games. Although it rarely plays out exactly as projected, Oregon State remains their toughest non-conference opponent, with Irvine ranked 20 spots ahead of the Beavers on KenPom. The game being played in Corvallis is the main reason Oregon State is favored.

Losses will likely occur during the conference schedule, with UCSD capable of pulling off an upset and UCSB always posing a challenge. However, with the added benefit of the NCAA not counting games at Hawaii towards the game total and the potential for three games in the Big West tournament, winning 30 of 35 games without any obvious losses on the schedule seems quite achievable.

Team: Liberty
Conference: Conference USA
Confidence Level: 4.5

One of the few entries on this list already with a loss, the key focus of this exercise is evaluating who teams have faced and who remains on their schedule. The Flames, led by Ritchie McKay—who guided them to 30 wins in the 2020 canceled season—are expected to enter conference play with just one loss: an overtime defeat against FAU in Charleston.

Despite being favored in the remainder of their schedule, the narrow projected outcomes of several games add five more losses to the Flames' record (KP).

Winning 20 games in C-USA presents a greater challenge than in the Atlantic Sun, but Liberty is still projected to finish 25-6. With three additional games in the conference tournament, Liberty may need a winning record against key opponents like Western Kentucky, Sam Houston State, and Louisiana Tech to bolster their chances.

Team: Memphis
Conference: American
Confidence Level: 2.75

Time will tell just how impressive the win against UConn truly was. Regardless, Memphis clearly outclasses the rest of its conference opponents. With only three notable non-conference games remaining and no guaranteed losses among them, the Tigers have reason for optimism. While playing at Clemson will be a challenge, hosting Mississippi and Mississippi State is more manageable. Going 2-1 in these matchups, coupled with winning the conference tournament, would allow Memphis to drop two conference games and still reach 30 wins.

Unfortunately, this isn’t unfamiliar territory for Memphis at this point in the season. After a 5-0 start last year, early bracketology projections placed the Tigers as a top seed, with victories over Michigan, Missouri, and Arkansas looking more impressive in November than they did by March. Even after a 15-2 start, Memphis was ranked outside the top 40 at KenPom. The Tigers ultimately closed their season with a 7-8 record, falling well short of expectations given their roster's talent and preseason projections.

Despite a strong start to the season and an impressive record, Memphis's performance in the second half of the year didn’t lead to significant changes in their computer rankings.

History could repeat itself if Memphis's early opponents don’t hold up to the reputations they had at the time of their matchups. While the American appears weaker this year, the Tigers dropped games last season to teams they seemed fully capable of beating earlier in the year. This season might require a wait-and-see approach to gauge how well the rest of the American lives up to expectations.

Team: Drake
Conference: MVC
Confidence Level: 4

After capturing the Charleston Classic and securing wins over two high-major teams, the Bulldogs, fresh off an NCAA Tournament appearance, are off to another promising start. This success comes under a new head coach and with a largely revamped roster. Despite the changes, the Bulldogs are favored in all but three of their remaining games, with projections showing a 24-6 record and three additional opportunities in Arch Madness.

Among first-year head coaches, McCollum and the Bulldogs have exceeded expectations.

Two teams have emerged as early-season contenders in the conference: Murray State and Bradley. If the Bulldogs can split their four matchups against these teams, they’ll have the flexibility to absorb two more losses, with a non-conference game against Kansas State still on the schedule.

Catching Smoke

Some teams will undoubtedly reach 30 wins by Selection Sunday. Whether those teams come from multi-bid conferences or leagues where the average KenPom ranking hovers in the 250s is another matter.

At the end of the day, the team still standing in April likely won’t be determined by padding their win total in November and December. However, securing a spot in the tournament may very well be helped by approaching the 30-win mark.

No win should be taken for granted; each victory deserves to be celebrated. While everyone wants to win them all, someone always has to lose.

-BM