Originally Posted- 2/6
Updated - 2/26
Kansas State won their 17th game of the season on Monday, one which many may have turned off upon seeing their lead grow to 25 in the second half. This game eventually ended in overtime, one which the Wildcats won. This extended their overtime winning streak to 12 consecutive victories, with head coach Jerome Tang boasting a perfect 12-0 record in extra periods. While longer streaks exist, the sheer volume in just two seasons is remarkable and warrants revisiting each instance, particularly when the streak was most uncertain.
With a record of 16-11 and 6-8 in the Big 12, it was evident that the Wildcats needed to finish their season strong to make it back to back years in the tournament.
A surprise win against BYU on Saturday made this road quite a bit easier, and with a home game against West Virginia, a bottom two team in the conference, the Wildcats were given an easy game and a long break ahead of an away game against another desperate team, in Cincinnati. Up by over 20 in the second half, the fans in Manhattan might be looking ahead to their game against Cincinnati on Saturday. Monday’s game ended on a very impressive 38-9 run by the Mountaineers, and once Tylor Perry hit two free throws to tie the game late, this streak was tested once again.
Per: AP Photo
Game #1- Nevada (Cayman Islands Classic) - 11/22/22
96-87 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 2.25
A matchup of two eventual tournament teams was close all throughout. The Wildcats matched their largest lead of the game of nine points in the overtime period. The Wildcats were up by nine with four minutes to go in the game, with their win probability sitting in the low 90s. Threes from Jarod Lucas and Tre Coleman got the Wolf Pack back into the game, with Markquis Nowell eventually tying the game with 11 seconds remaining, forcing overtime. The Wolf Pack seemed to run out of gas on the defensive end in the extra period, with Nowell and Keyontae Johnson combining for 13 of the Wildcat’s 15 points in the extra period. Given that they never trailed in overtime, K-State was at low risk of fumbling the streak before it began.
Per: K State Athletics
Game #2 - West Virginia - 12/31/22
82-76 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 3.0
Tang’s first conference game as head coach was quite different from what we saw in the Caymans. The Mountaineers had an 11 point lead going into overtime, but an extended 31-12 run to start the second half gave the Wildcats an eight point advantage. Once again, this second half lead was not able to be protected, as a Kedrian Johnson three pointer as time expired tied the score at 66. Another high scoring overtime period for the Wildcats allowed them to complete the job, starting their streak officially at two, as a more balanced scoring effort allowed the Wildcats to never trail in the extra period. Though it was a two possession game by the end, this once again was a wire to wire overtime victory, closed out by Nowell hitting his free throws.
This provides a good time for a sidebar. Over the past two seasons, K-State has been led by two lead guards, the aforementioned Nowell and the North Texas transfer Tylor Perry. These two share more than their clutch shot making and their diminutive size. Both ball dominant guards are fantastic free throw shooters. This is key in close games- firstly forcing the overtime period if their team is trailing late, and then closing it out. Both guards are career 86% or higher free throw shooters, and have a nose for the ball when their team is leading late.
Game #3 - @ Baylor - 1/7/23
97-95 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 8.75
This marked Tang's return to Baylor, where he had coached alongside Scott Drew for two decades. It was our first true road game of the season and the second overtime game in a week. The matchup remained close throughout, with the score tied at halftime. In the second half, the game only exceeded a two-possession lead once. With less than 40 seconds remaining and Baylor holding a two-possession lead, Desi Sills and the Wildcats split free throws, narrowing the gap to three points. Jalen Bridges then hit a game-tying three-pointer, forcing overtime with the score at 86 apiece. It was a situation unfamiliar to Tang, trailing as a head coach in overtime for the first time. Despite free throws on both ends, Adam Flagler put the Bears up by three with less than two minutes remaining. Nowell, fouled by Bridges on a three-point attempt, tied the game by converting all three free throws. With less than a minute left, Ismael Massoud, coming off the bench, hit a crucial three-pointer to give the Wildcats the lead. A forced turnover on the other end led to free throws, sealing the victory in a closely contested matchup.
Per: USA Today
Game #4 - Kansas - 1/17/23
83-82 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 9.5
The Baylor game held sentimental meaning for Tang, but the in-state rivalry with the Jayhawks made it arguably the most significant in his coaching career to date. The fervent support from the home crowd propelled the Wildcats to a double-digit lead in the first half, which the Jayhawks gradually narrowed. With the game tied at 57 with eight minutes remaining, neither team managed more than a single-possession lead for the rest of the contest. Free throws by Jalen Wilson leveled the score at 72 with about a minute left, and despite opportunities, neither team could seize the lead, resulting in a tie at the end of regulation.
Overtime mirrored the intensity of the final quarter, with the score deadlocked at 80 after Johnson's successful free throws. Following two made foul shots on the other end, Johnson was fouled again, but he could only convert one of his free throws, giving the Jayhawks a one-point lead with a minute remaining. Jalen Wilson attempted a game-ending three-pointer, but Bill Self called a timeout just before, preserving the Jayhawks' slim advantage. Wilson missed his subsequent attempt, and a dunk by Johnson, redeeming his earlier missed free throw, propelled the Wildcats to a one-point lead. This hard-fought victory marked their closest overtime win yet, igniting jubilation as they stormed the court.
Game #5 - Michigan State - (Sweet 16) - 3/23/23
98-93 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 7.25
After three consecutive weeks with overtime games, the Wildcats finally had a chance to catch their breath, but the upcoming game presented no easier circumstances. One of the highlights of last year's tournament was an exceptional performance from Nowell, who nearly achieved a 20-20 game with just two turnovers. Additionally, Jaden Akins and Tyson Walker showcased expert shot-making skills for the Spartans, who collectively shot 52% from the perimeter. The game saw consecutive baskets from Malik Hall and Tyson Walker, forcing overtime in a contest where neither team seemed to have full control, given the high-powered offenses. Overtime was equally intense, with Tyson Walker's three-pointer giving the Spartans a lead with 3:30 remaining. However, the score remained tied at 92 with a minute left. Despite a scoring opportunity for the Spartans, Walker missed his shot, and the Wildcats seized control. Two baskets assisted by Nowell gave the Wildcats a three-point lead with 15 seconds left. Nowell then forced a turnover and scored as time expired, securing a deceptive five-point victory for the Wildcats.
Throughout the season, Jerome Tang maintained a perfect 5-0 record in overtime games. All five victories came against tournament teams. Despite being 5.5-point favorites against Nevada in their November matchup, the Wildcats comfortably secured a three seed in the tournament. While winning three tournament games would have been preferable to two, simply reaching the tournament was cause for celebration for Tang and his team. Even if the regular season overtime games had been reversed, it would not have prevented the Wildcats from having a fifth opportunity to compete.
Per: Getty Images
Game #6 - Providence - (Baha Mar) - 11/17/23
73-70 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 5.5
In another tropical multi-team event against a potential double-digit seed, this matchup featured a completely new set of players. With Johnson and Nowell off to the NBA and Nae'Qwan Tomlin no longer part of the team as of November, the Wildcats faced significant changes. Despite the new faces, Perry understood his role well, particularly in clutch situations. Immediately fouled on a three-point attempt in overitime, he gave the Wildcats a three-point lead. Although the Friars came close to mounting a comeback several times, they were ultimately unsuccessful. A layup by David N'Guessan extended the Wildcats' lead to six points with a minute left, and their ability to respond quickly after Providence scored was crucial in securing the victory.
Game #7 - Oral Roberts - 11/28/23
88 - 78 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 3.0
The Golden Eagles had little reason to be in this game, given that they were 15-point underdogs as the game began. Poor shooting from the Wildcats' backcourt duo of Perry and Cam Carter (11-28 overall) and a squandered nine-point second-half lead allowed the game to go into overtime. Jailen Bedford hit two threes in the first two minutes of overtime, but that was the extent of the scoring for the Eagles in the extra period. The Wildcats then went on a 12-0 run to secure a double-digit victory. Oral Roberts struggled to get second looks on the offensive end, while Kansas State's defense tightened up, eventually asserting control and securing the win decisively.
Game #8 - North Alabama - 12/2/23
75-74 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 2.5
For the second time in two games, the Wildcats needed overtime to secure a win in a buy game. The Lions of North Alabama led by 13 points in the second half, with over a 70% probability of winning, before Cam Carter rallied with a decisive 10-0 run that propelled the Wildcats back into the game. However, they were unable to pull ahead, and a three-pointer from Tylor Perry (just one of three made by the entire team in that game) forced overtime. A dunk by David N'Guessan capped an 8-0 run to start the extra period, and while Canin Jefferson's three-pointer narrowed the gap to one point, it was merely cosmetic, as the game had essentially already been decided.
In these past two games, we've witnessed a new development from the Wildcats – the need for overtime to defeat teams they were expected to outperform. In less than a week, they required 10 extra minutes against two opponents that Kansas State was anticipated to beat by an average margin of 17 points. Tang successfully guided his team to victory on two nights when the offense was underperforming, maintaining the integrity of their resume, which will be crucial for the seeding conversation in mid-March.
Per: K State Athletics
Game #9 - Villanova - 12/5/23
72-71 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 9.75
Remarkably, the Wildcats found themselves in a third overtime game in a single week. Despite facing a formidable opponent and being considered underdogs on their home court, K-State took control of the game early on, establishing an eight-point lead going into halftime. They maintained this lead and were up by two possessions with less than 10 minutes remaining, courtesy of a breakout performance from former Big East forward Arthur Kaluma. Jordan Longino's shot tied the game at 63 for the visiting Wildcats with a minute left, and the score remained deadlocked until Tyler Burton's jumpshot in overtime. Although the game remained tight throughout, a three-point jumper from Eric Dixon put the Wildcats' winning streak in doubt, as Villanova surged ahead by two possessions with a minute remaining. Kansas State managed to narrow the deficit to two points with a score from David N'Guessan, and a hurried jumper by Jordan Longino validated Tang’s decision not to foul under 40 seconds. Perry sealed the victory with a game-winning step-back three-pointer from the wing with just three seconds remaining. Despite the challenges of their recent games, Kansas State maintained a 7-2 record, with losses only to two other high-major programs.
Game #10 - Baylor - 1/16/24
68-64 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 9.5
The first of two overtime rematches, this round taking place in the Little Apple. Surprisingly, Tylor Perry split a pair of late free throws, denying his Wildcats an outright victory in regulation and forcing the game into overtime with the score tied at 54 – undoubtedly the most intense defensive matchup of this streak. RayJ Dennis, Cam Carter, and Langston Love each hit three-pointers on consecutive possessions, propelling Baylor to a three-point lead. Love responded to a Will McNair layup with one of his own. RayJ Dennis matched Love's fifth point in the extra period, extending the Bears' lead to five with 1:12 remaining, the largest deficit K-State had faced in overtime during this streak. R.J. Jones, the freshman, hit a crucial three-pointer to keep his team in the game. After a missed layup on the other end, Arthur Kaluma was fouled while making a three-pointer, putting the Wildcats ahead by two. Free throws in the closing moments secured a four-point victory for Kansas State, capping off a remarkable 9-0 run to extend the streak to double digits.
Game #11 - Kansas - 2/6/24
75-70 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 7.0
Despite having demonstrated their ability to defeat them the previous year, Kansas State found themselves trailing Kansas by a double-digit margin early in this game, with the Wildcats down by 11 points with 17 minutes remaining, facing a win probability of just 10%. Perry and Carter played the entire 45 minutes, keeping their team in contention. Kaluma's late layup gave the Wildcats a two-point lead in regulation, but a KJ Adams dunk left the game deadlocked, leading to overtime, mirroring the previous year's matchup. The extra period saw a back-and-forth exchange, but Perry's crucial three-pointer with two minutes left provided his team with a two-possession lead, with the Jayhawks facing an uphill battle thereafter. Kevin McCullar had the chance to tie the game, but he missed the front end of a one-and-one, allowing free throws to seal the victory and extend the streak to 11, a significant achievement for both Jerome Tang and the Wildcats.
Per: K State Athletics
Game #12 - West Virginia - 2/26/24
74-90 (OT)
Likert Risk Rating - 3.25
Jesse Edwards was fouled on a rebound, and with his Mountaineers up two points with under 30 seconds, he had the ability to put his team up two possessions late, and turn the game into a free throw shooting competition. Missing both shots, the door was left wide open for Tylor Perry, who responded by getting fouled on a drive to the basket. Two free throws sunk to tie the game followed by Kerr Kriisa unable to win the game in regulation put the streak on the line once again.
Overtime was a microcosm of regulation, with the Wildcats in control for the majority of the extra period, before it getting tricky late. Tylor Perry responded to a pair of split free throws by Jesse Edwards with a three of his own. West Virginia’s first made shot in the extra period wasn’t hit until RaeQuan Battle hit a three. Though this shot made it a one possession game after K-State had gone up 6, facing a team with a fantastic free throw shooter in Perry would make any offensive options outside of trading two for three not worthwhile.
Perry hit a layup to give the Wildcats a two possession lead with under a minute left, and by sinking four of his four free throws granted in the final minute, the Mountaineers were forced into a desperation three by Battle to attempt to tie the game, falling short.
This year’s Kansas State has more overtime wins than anyone in D1 history, and that isn’t a point of pride, especially in a game like this. Up 25 in the second half, at home, against an inferior team, this streak shouldn’t have been granted the opportunity to grow to 12, and the results and predictive based numbers will reflect this, doing no favors for the Wildcat’s tournament bid.
Have you ever shot that shot?
-BM